Financial dollars ended last Friday higher, in what was the largest weekly increase in the last three months. It is observed that The pressure on stock exchange rates slowly began to escalate and drip increases were already becoming evident, after a period in which they had remained calm, benefiting from money laundering.
Likewise, the elimination of the PAIS Tax, scheduled for December, is another variable that analysts see it as a factor that could affect them. With gaps averaging 20%, they wonder What is the level desired by the Government and what is it willing to deliver to sustain them.
Money laundering, intervention and widening of the gap: what happened last week
From the last 15 weeks, Only four saw an increase in financial exchange rates and this last one was the strongest. For this reason, experts maintain that the Central Bank (BCRA) appeared in the market in a more evident way.
“This decrease in exchange makes us think that, perhaps, we are facing a slowdown in the effect of money laundering and that investors are slowing the circulation of laundered dollars. This is not problematic because it was to be expected that, at some point, it would happen, but, yes, it generates movements in the other prices,” they explained from Outlier.
It should be noted that on Friday the BCRA decided increase the requirement of a minimum reserve requirement from 15% to 20% for passive stock market guarantees in pesos and deposits in local currency at sight that are part of the Money Market Common Investment Funds (Money Market FCIs).
“Something that is not entirely clear is whether the Government does not want volatility or if it seeks to maintain the gap at around 20%. In any case, The latest interventions reaffirmed the signal from mid-July and put the implicit exchange rate insurance on the table again. It remains to be seen if the rise in parallels passes through there and, if it does, if this is enough,” they maintain from Outlier.
End of the COUNTRY Tax: how it affects the dollar
The completion of COUNTRY tax in December “opens a window of opportunity” to move forward with exchange rate unification without compromising the accumulation of reserves, said various analysts who, in addition, predict that there will be another process that will be seen.
“The end of the PAIS tax will make the tourist dollar more competitive (today above $1,600), which would only include 30% perceptions starting at the end of December. The demand for the tourist dollar will continue to be determined by the arbitration with the MEP, which currently stands at $1,167.”they pointed out in the consultancy Delphos.
This suggests that the demand for the tourist dollar may increase and experts warned that, probably, Both exchange rates (tourist and MEP) are arbitrated once the PAIS Tax has ended. “Given the current deficit trends due to tourism and spending abroad, the summer season could show a deficit of between US$700 and US$900 million during the high season (January-February) of 2025,” they stated in this report.
Did the dynamics of the MULC begin to become more challenging?
The BCRA closed its dollar buying and selling activity in the MULC on Friday with a practically neutral result, but ended the week with purchases for US$140 million, thanks to the fact that it acquired US$115 million on Thursday. “The BCRA continues to extend its positive streak, but Their shopping pace slowed down. In the previous two weeks, it had acquired US$507 million and US$230 million,” they warned about this from PPI.
As for the reasons, the city assured that it began to have an impact the deferral of imports in August made by operators due to the expectation of lowering the COUNTRY tax and that is added the overlap of import payment schemes. “This resulted in The BCRA is facing larger fees in October than in September” they said from this broker.
Source: Ambito
