According to current forecasts, roads will remain the dominant mode of transport in 2040. The forecast serves as the basis for the federal government’s transport planning – and causes criticism.
In the coming years, the truck will remain the dominant means of transport for goods and the car will remain the most used means of passenger transport. This emerges from a comprehensive traffic forecast for 2040 that the Federal Ministry of Transport has now presented.
According to this, freight traffic on the road will increase by 34 percent in the next 15 years. Rail freight transport will therefore also grow at a similar rate. However, only a fifth of all goods are currently transported by rail. The federal government wants to increase this share to a quarter by 2030.
Rail traffic is growing the fastest
According to the forecast, passenger traffic will also increase significantly – by eight percent to more than 1.3 billion passenger kilometers in 2040. The railway will account for the largest share of this growth: passenger traffic by rail is expected to grow by 60 percent by then In the air it will decrease by 30 percent, while on the road it will decrease by one percent.
Cars remain the most frequently used means of transport
According to this, “cars and motorcycles remain by far the most popular means of transport in Germany. Two thirds of the journeys are made with them,” said the BMDV.
“Traffic in Germany will increase significantly,” said Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP). “In order to prevent a traffic gridlock in the future, we must continue to act decisively and invest in all modes of transport.”
The traffic forecast involves different long-term scenarios that depict traffic development up to 2040 under certain conditions. The previous forecast referred to the year 2030 and comes from 2014.
Based on these scenarios, the federal government is now reviewing its plans to expand the infrastructure, the so-called requirements plans for the individual modes of transport: road, rail and water.
Criticism from associations
But this approach is met with criticism from many associations. They demand that infrastructure planning and investments be aligned with political goals and not with traffic development forecasts. “Those who think about the transport transition in terms of goals take ambitious measures and don’t hide behind predictions,” said Dirk Flege, managing director of the pro-rail Alliance Alliance.
Source: Stern
