There will be no change in the dominance of roads among modes of transport for the time being. This is shown by the federal government’s current forecast. The government will therefore miss important transport targets.
No other mode of transport in Germany will grow as strongly as rail in the next few years – but this will not change the dominance of the road in the foreseeable future. This is shown by the current traffic forecast for 2040, presented by Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP).
“The results clearly show that traffic is growing and that we can only achieve our goals of demand-based transport by expanding all modes of transport,” said the minister. “We still need full steam ahead when it comes to maintaining and expanding the railway.” But the expansion and construction of new roads must also be promoted. “This is essential to accommodate the traffic we will have in the area.”
The traffic forecast involves long-term scenarios that depict traffic development up to 2040 under certain conditions. Based on these scenarios, the federal government is now reviewing its plans to expand the infrastructure, the so-called requirements plans for the individual modes of transport: road, rail and water.
The most important results for passenger and freight transport
In passenger transport, the study authors expect an increase in transport performance of almost eight percent by 2040 compared to 2019. This is due, among other things, to a growing population – primarily due to immigration – which is the assumption behind the forecast.
Rail transport will therefore grow the most – by around 60 percent to around 163.4 billion passenger kilometers. “This increasing demand requires punctual, reliable rail transport,” said a spokeswoman for Deutsche Bahn. The group is currently focusing on this with its renovation program and the modernization of the rail network and train stations.
Analysts expect air traffic within Germany to increase by 30 percent to around 66 billion passenger kilometers.
When it comes to car traffic, on the other hand, there are signs of a decline in traffic performance of around 1 percent to more than 907 billion passenger kilometers by 2040. This means that the proportion of motorized individual transport is declining significantly, but at around two thirds it remains the dominant form of transport for people.
The forecast for freight transport in Germany paints a similar picture. Here too, traffic performance will increase significantly by more than 31 percent by 2040. Rail and road are growing almost equally, by around a third each. The share of rail freight transport, currently around 20 percent, will not change much by 2040.
The federal government is failing to achieve its own goals
This means that the federal government has two central goals at its disposal that it had actually already set for 2030: to double passenger rail traffic by the end of this decade and to increase rail freight traffic’s share of the total transport volume in Germany, which is currently around a fifth to then increase to a quarter. Wissing did not want to cash in on these projects. “These are ambitious goals, in the end we can only implement what is feasible,” he said.
The climate target will probably also be missed
Transport in Germany is one of the few sectors in which CO2 reduction targets have been missed for many years. According to the Federal Environment Agency, in the years before the corona pandemic, emissions were even higher than the values from 1990. This is expected to change in the coming years.
The authors of the traffic forecast assume that CO2 emissions in traffic will fall by around 77 percent by 2040. Alternative drive types in road traffic account for the majority of this. By then, around two thirds of cars should be fully electric, said study author Tobias Kluth.
However, the report admits that even with this reduction, the goal anchored in the Climate Protection Act of reducing emissions in the transport sector by 88 percent by 2040 would be missed.
The self-fulfilling prophecy
Based on the traffic forecast, the federal government now wants to examine to what extent plans for future investments in infrastructure need to be adapted. Because the prediction itself is also based on future political measures, some critics speak of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
“Volker Wissing wants to have thousands of kilometers of additional motorways and federal highways built or expanded and then realizes that car traffic is not decreasing and that more trucks are driving,” criticized Greenpeace traffic expert Lena Donat. Other forecasts showed that developments would be completely different with just a few political changes.
The German Nature Conservation Association also criticized the study. “Unimpressed by the fatal consequences for the environment, the forecast cements the status quo and sells the construction and expansion of roads as having no alternative,” said the team leader for transport policy, Pauline Schur.
Wissing: Political wishes cannot be the basis
Other associations call for infrastructure planning and investments to be aligned with political goals and not with traffic development forecasts. “Those who think about the transport transition in terms of goals take ambitious measures and don’t hide behind predictions,” said Dirk Flege, managing director of the pro-rail Alliance Alliance.
Wissing rejected the criticism. “The basis for this traffic forecast is based on the assumption that we will have implemented the entire rail requirements plan by 2040,” he said. “Of course, such a forecast should not be developed on the basis of political wishes, but on the basis of realistic assumptions that ultimately lead to the calculated results.”
Source: Stern
