In the event of a military escalation in Ukraine and the imposition of tough sanctions against Russia, the ruble could fall by 20%. On Wednesday, January 19, RBC reports, citing a review of the Renaissance Capital investment company.
“In this case, we expect that the outflow of funds from the debt and, more importantly, the stock markets could approach the indicators of 2014-2015 with a depreciation of the ruble up to 20%, an expansion of the country risk premium by 200 basis points and a comparable tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank, ”RBC quotes excerpts from an analytical review of the investment company.
According to economists, in this case, Russian regulators will have to take emergency measures to stabilize the country’s financial market. In a worst-case scenario, experts predict such measures as “the introduction of capital controls and fees for non-residents for the sale of federal loan bonds.”
Information that the United States is considering imposing sanctions against Russian banks has recently begun to spread in foreign media. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, January 18, that one should not rely on media speculation that is “based on nothing or based on rumors.”
On January 17, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council said that the US authorities continue to consult with European counterparts about imposing sanctions on Russia in the event of its “invasion of Ukraine”, including disconnecting from SWIFT. At the same time, the Handelsblatt newspaper, citing government sources, reported that the United States and the European Union are no longer considering the possibility of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. According to the interlocutors of the publication, the issue of targeted economic sanctions against the largest Russian banks is currently being discussed.
On January 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the country’s readiness for any Western sanctions. He noted that Russia is ready “for any development of events in the economic sphere.”
On January 13, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, said that the bank was not afraid of new possible sanctions. According to Gref, Sberbank is ready for all scenarios. On the same day, it became known that the United States had determined a set of sanctions against Russia and they could be immediately introduced in the event of an escalation of tension around Ukraine.
In the Western media, articles have repeatedly appeared about the allegedly possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly rejected such reports about an allegedly possible invasion of Ukraine. On January 10, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted that Moscow had no intentions to attack Ukraine and could not have it. He stressed that all measures for the combat training of troops are carried out within Russian territory.
Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
