VTB Capital predicts that annual inflation in 2022 will be from 5.3 to 5.6%, including 6.5% in food, 4.7% in non-food, and 4% in services. This is stated in the message of the company, which was received by the editors of Izvestia on Thursday, January 20.
“At the same time, the level of inflation in the last month increases the likelihood of raising the key rate of the Central Bank by 0.5 percentage points in February. And the upward revision of the inflation forecast for the current year by the Central Bank will require another similar increase in March-April, and in the first half of the year the key rate will reach 9.5%,” the company believes.
Analysts said they see no need to lower the inflation target to 3%. The current target is chosen in such a way as to minimize the volatility of price increases and the likelihood of deflation.
Analysts predict Russia’s GDP growth this year to 2.2%. Last year, the financial and construction sectors of the economy, as well as wholesale and retail trade, returned to pre-crisis levels, while the rest are still experiencing difficulties, the report says. The average growth in real wages of the population will be at the level of GDP growth, according to VTB Capital.
Analysts also expect the Russian national currency to strengthen in the long term by about 3 rubles, or 4% from the current level. According to their forecasts, the average exchange rate in the coming year will be formed at the level of 73.7 rubles per dollar, in 2023 – at the level of 73.8 rubles.
VTB Capital said that the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 rhyme with the end of 2018. Monetary conditions tightened against the backdrop of high inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty grew, due to which the ruble exchange rate did not correspond to fundamental macro indicators, and the structure of GDP growth changed from consumption to investment. Therefore, according to experts, this year will have similarities with 2019: inflationary pressures will gradually ease, while monetary conditions remain tight.
“Support from the credit and fiscal momentum will weaken, and exports and investments will be the main drivers of GDP growth, which will provide additional support to the ruble,” Alexander Isakov, senior economist at VTB Capital for Russia and the CIS, was quoted in the message.
On the eve of the Kremlin said that the government is taking steps to bring inflation in Russia to target levels.
At the end of December, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that by the end of 2021, inflation in Russia would be slightly higher than 8%. She also reported that, according to the forecasts of the regulator, by the end of 2022, inflation in the country will decrease to 4–4.5%.
A few days earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the situation with rising inflation in the country is partly a price to pay for the openness of the economy. The government is aware of rising prices, and inflation is mainly imported, he stressed.
Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
