“The problem that the AL30 has is that it became somewhat less representative as a result of the growth in the restrictions established by the National Securities Commission (CNV) last year. Those restrictions are still in force, so buying CCL with the AL30 implies not being able to use the rest of the global bonds for a month and be able to operate a smaller number of nominal ones,” Ecolatina analyst Juan Pablo Albornoz said in a dialogue with Ámbito.
“I think that for a company or large investors, the GD30 is more representative, which apart from offering the coverage of foreign legislation,” said the specialist, although he clarified that all prices must be monitored.
For its part, the MEP (via AL30) increased by 2.8% ($5.74) to $212.32, an unprecedented face value so far. The spread with the wholesaler rose to 103.5%, a record in almost two months.
“In addition to seasonality, there are two elements that allow us to think that the dollars could go looking for new nominal records: 1) the excess of pesos and 2) the deterioration of expectations due to an agreement with the IMF that is moving away,” he said. the stock exchange company Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
The tension between the Government and the IMF is due to differences in terms of speed and the path that Argentina must follow to reach fiscal balance. From Casa Rosada they intend to take a more gradual path, while in the organization they press for a faster adjustment.
Many analysts maintain that despite the disagreements there will be an agreement before March 22, at which time Argentina must pay the agency about US$3 billion, a figure that exceeds the amount of net reserves held by the BCRA.
“Although time is running out, we suspect that the government of Argentina will secure a new agreement with the IMF in the coming months and shift towards more orthodox policies. The biggest challenge will be to restore the competitiveness of the currency while keeping a check on inflation and the currency-laden government debt,” Capital Economics projected.
Official dollar and Central Bank
In the wholesale segment, the dollar regulated by the BCRA increased seven cents to $104.31. At this rate, the price is on track to post its biggest monthly rise in 10 months.
The monetary authority had to get rid of another US$30 million, which is added to the US$110 million sold between Tuesday and Wednesday.
“In a scenario that replicates the end of last year, the level of imports is maintained and the income of the agro-export sector falls a little, forcing renewed official sales to meet the demand for foreign currency. The balance for January remains positive until today shortly more than US$ 60 million, a record that may worsen in the coming week,” warned market sources.
For its part, the savings or solidarity dollar rose six cents to $181.02, -without taxes-, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency in Banco Nación -without taxes- ended at $109.
The blue dollar does not stop its upward climb and this Thursday, January 20, 2022, it climbed $1 to the unprecedented $214, according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market.
In this way, the parallel dollar accumulated a rise of $8 from its monthly minimum, noted last Monday, January 3.
Source From: Ambito
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