The analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay adjusted their expectations about the exchange rate and the CPI.
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) released monthly analyst surveys that reflected an increase in their projections on the value of the dollarby the end of the year, as well as a reduction in their inflation expectations.
Specifically, the Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) reflected that economic agents expect a dollar at 42.25 pesos by the end of the year, while the one that closely follows the CPI, detailed that inflation would end 2024 at around 5%.
The value of the dollar
Regarding the exchange rate, Analysts incorporated the rally of the US currency in recent days, which placed it near 43 pesos. In any case, despite the upward adjustment of 1.32%, from the 41.70 pesos expected last month for the last day of December, the value of the greenback is below its current value, of 42.602.
Meanwhile, the EEE hopes that the dollar closed the month at 42.30 pesos and in the next six months the median response placed it at 42.91 pesos. Meanwhile, in 12 months it would reach 44.05 pesos and by October 2026 up to 45.90 pesos, according to specialists.
Regarding the growth, They maintained their projections at 3% for this year and 2.5% for both next year and 2026.
Decline in inflation expectations
Meanwhile, the inflation expectations were reduced by 20 basis points by the end of the year, reaching 5%, closer to the center than to the ceiling of the target range, in convergence with the objectives of the BCU.
For this month, the CPI expected is 0.31%, while the median response from analysts reflected a slight increase for 2025, which reached 5.83%, five basis points more than last month. Meanwhile, the projections for 2026 remained unchanged, at 5.70%.
Source: Ambito
