Tom Homan, Donald Trump’s incoming “border czar,” says you can’t put a price on national security. However, Americans would bear enormous costs due to mass deportation, warn various analysts in the north.
In a recent interview with CBS News, Tom Homan was asked whether the benefits of mass deporting millions of undocumented immigrants would justify the cost. He responded with his own question: ““What price would you put on national security?” It’s a question Americans may soon be asking. Is deporting millions of undocumented immigrants worth the cost?
During the 2024 presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump described crackdowns on illegal immigration as an essential tool for reducing crime, increasing employment and even lowering housing costs. Ignoring that undocumented immigrants are much less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans and that the threat to national security from their presence is minimal.
The economic costs of the measure
What was omitted from Trump’s anti-immigrant speeches were the significant economic costs of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants and the meager benefits. According to an estimate by the pro-immigration group American Immigration Council, arresting, detaining and deporting the 13.3 million people who are in the United States illegally or temporarily without legal status could cost $315 billion.
Trump campaign officials have said that They do not intend to deport every undocumented immigrant immediately. Given that the US has never expelled more than half a million people in a single year, it would probably be impossible to achieve this.
However, even deporting a million people a year could cost almost $90 billion. Arresting immigrants, detaining them, court proceedings, and transporting them out of the country make mass deportation a complicated and costly endeavor. In fact, the estimated cost of deporting a single undocumented immigrant could be as high as $13,000.
Trump recently signaled that he wants to enlist the military in his mass deportation plans, but that’s easier said than done. Trump will have to overcome several legal obstacles to using the military in the application of domestic law. To achieve his anti-immigrant goals, Trump will likely need Congress to authorize billions of dollars in new spending and hire tens of thousands of new government employees.
Migration data to the US
Today, undocumented immigrants make up 5% of the US workforce, and because two-thirds of them are between 25 and 54 years old (compared to less than 40% of the US-born population). USA), are overrepresented in the workforce. Many undocumented immigrants work in dangerous, manual, low-paying jobs. They are maids, cleaners, construction workers and agricultural employees. In fact, a staggering 45% of agricultural workers are undocumented, as are 15% of construction workers.
If millions of undocumented immigrants are forced to leave the country, these industries will be hardest hit, as will consumers. Even if they are not deported, the fear of being caught in labor raids could stop some of the undocumented from going to work. Either way, farms, construction companies and restaurants could be short-staffed and unable to hire new workers at a time of low unemployment.
Whatever the case, labor disruptions will almost certainly lead to higher prices on everything from food to housing. And American workers, many of whom voted for Trump, will be hardest hit.
Additionally, if restaurants lose cooks and bussers and construction companies can’t find workers, other Native Americans like servers, construction managers, and architects will also be directly affected as businesses close or take on fewer projects.
In his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, Trump said: “Americans are being pushed out of the workforce, and their jobs are being taken.” That’s not true, since the undocumented often hold jobs that most native-born Americans simply don’t want. If Trump is successful in deporting millions of undocumented workers, his words will be prophetic; Tens of thousands of Americans could soon be out of work.
There are other indirect costs that many Americans who voted for mass deportation probably did not consider. For example, many undocumented immigrants work in child care. If they are forced to leave the country, the number of women in the workforce could decrease.
There are also the tax implications. In 2022, undocumented immigrants paid nearly $50 billion in federal taxes and almost $30 billion in state taxes. They also contributed more than $28 billion to Social Security and Medicare (although they do not benefit from those programs).
“Migrants are also consumers. Removing them from the country would mean decreased spending, which would further harm the economy. By almost every measurable measure, immigration to the United States is a net economic positive, contributing to higher growth, greater productivity and even a reduction in the budget deficit,” said a leading economist quoted by the US press.
By contrast, mass deportations will almost certainly lead to slower economic growth, higher unemployment and, ironically, higher inflation.
While the economic costs of mass deportation are significant, we cannot ignore the moral and humanitarian costs. Millions of undocumented immigrants have children born in the US.
Source: Ambito
