Immigration and jobs: Study: Labor market has long depended on a lot of immigration

According to a study, the German labor market is dependent on immigrants “to a substantial extent” every year in the long term. In order to have sufficient supply available, around 288,000 international workers would be required annually by 2040, according to an analysis commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation. Labor migration is currently significantly lower than needed. Barriers must be reduced and conditions for migrants improved, says the foundation’s expert on migration, Susanne Schultz.

A refugee becomes an IT specialist – and turns his back on Germany

Looking at an example can be sobering. A 29-year-old who fled Syria in 2016 told the German Press Agency that he had completed a bachelor’s and master’s degree at universities in North Rhine-Westphalia – and is now leaving Germany as a well-trained IT specialist. He says he’s going to Switzerland.

“I did top performances here in order to be perceived as an equal, but I felt discriminated against and rejected.” He encountered a lot of devaluation in his social life, study environment and part-time job. Despite working part-time at an institute and having a very good master’s degree, he did not receive an adequate job offer: “I want to be treated as an equal, but I don’t want to beg for it.”

Expert Schultz says the case is “unfortunately not a total outlier.” “Germany can’t afford something like that and has to become more attractive.” The study also warns that the recruitment of foreign skilled workers must be intensified and hurdles must be reduced.

Great demand with regional differences

The projection assumes that Germany will need an average of 288,000 people from abroad every year until 2040. A second projection model, which is based on a somewhat less favorable starting point, even assumes that 368,000 people will be needed. From 2041 to 2060 – based on positive effects from previous immigration – a need of around 270,000 people is expected on an annual average.

Without additional immigrants, the number of workers would fall from the current 46.4 million to 41.9 million – by around 10 percent – due to demographic change. A lack of immigration could have different effects regionally: According to the analysis, the decline in the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia would be around the middle with an assumed minus of 10 percent. Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saarland would be hit harder. But the staff shortage would also be significant in Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Hesse without additional international workers.

Significant net immigration from third countries – not from other EU countries

The bottom line is that immigration from other EU countries has recently fallen sharply and will hardly be significant in the future, it is said. This makes third countries all the more important. According to Schultz, around 70,000 workers will have come from third countries in 2023, but at the same time 20,000 will have left Germany. This is due, among other things, to problems with residence permits, but also to discrimination.

“Germany now has a very liberal immigration law,” says the scientist, referring to the reformed skilled worker immigration law. “However, it needs to be put into practice much better.” Bureaucracy and a lack of staff, including in immigration authorities, are barriers.

In addition, a mental change is necessary in many authorities – “a clear move away from a restrictive, negative attitude towards an active welcome”. More knowledge about recruiting abroad or assessing foreign qualifications is needed. “But there are also success stories. A lot of things are going extremely well.” Workers are wanted in almost all sectors – including construction and crafts, care and health, tourism and also heavily in the IT sector.

Discrimination is widespread in senior professions

According to the study, successful labor market immigration benefits companies and migrants and should also “sustainably promote cooperative attitudes towards migration among the local population.” However: There is discrimination and the trend is that discrimination is more severe in higher-level professions than in jobs that can be performed with lower qualifications, says Herbert Brücker from the dpa Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB).

“The more immigrants are involved in academic, higher-level professions, the stronger the rejection symptoms sometimes become,” explains the economist: “Where immigrants want to become teachers, professors or judges, we see that it becomes problematic.”

And: “What’s interesting is that these people are generally well integrated, they have high qualifications and perform well, but they still often report experiences of discrimination.” Surveys repeatedly show: “Many people say, for example, a Syrian or a Muslim as a colleague is okay for them, but a Muslim or Syrian as a boss, teacher, judge or mayor would be a problem for them.”

Discrimination plays a role and there are clear hierarchies here

The IAB expert for migration, integration and international labor market research knows: “Not all people with a migration background are disadvantaged in the labor market, but discrimination plays a role and there are clear hierarchies here.” While Austrians or Swiss, for example, are treated like Germans, skepticism towards southern European countries of origin often begins. “People from Turkey, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa are most affected by discrimination, then it decreases again towards the Far East.”

Brücker makes it clear that such disadvantages are not a unique German problem. There is also discrimination and disadvantages against certain migrant groups in Switzerland, other European countries and the USA. “However, there has been a high proportion of foreign workers working in Switzerland for many years. It is more normal there for top positions to be occupied by foreigners and migrants.”

The 29-year-old IT expert, who is leaving Germany and is now settling down in Bern, is optimistic: “I have good conditions for a new start, I am respected at work, have had several offers to share a flat and am no longer stared at so much. “