The gradual recovery of real wages, and access to private sector credit would be the two key factors that would explain that Economic activity would have positive data in October. However, this performance would be far from last July’s data, which pushed the third quarter up. So, Private measurements predict a fall in GDP for all of 2024 of 3%a little better than expected at the beginning of the year.
From Outlier explained that, with the first primary data known for October, it can be projected that “at the start of the fourth quarter Economic activity would continue to recover, although not at the pace of July“. For this reason, they expect a positive quarterly variation for the last quarter, but of a lesser magnitude compared to the third, where it was evident that the seventh month was key.
Regarding the factors that contributed to the rebound in the level of activity, they mention two: the first of them is the recovery of real wagesdespite the fact that the data from the RIPTE (Average Taxable Remuneration of Stable Workers) and the INDEC suggest that the process slowed down in August-September; the second is the strong expansion of credit to the private sector in a context remonetization of the local economy.
From lcg They also highlighted that the indicators show that October will be positive. “We must not lose sight of the fact that the declines at the end of 2023 and the beginning of this year were sensitive and the recovery of recent months does not seem to be necessarily strong enough to compensate. Salaries that began a recomposition in real terms since March/April, have not yet they end up driving consumption, possibly because they start from very low levels”they detailed.
In the medium term, they warn that the implementation of RIGI (Large Investment Incentive Regime) would have a macroeconomic impact on some specific sectors, which already enjoy high margins, and which will react to the benefits offered with “magnitude investments, but with limited macro effect”. However, come from of laundering a certain impulse, due to push for loans and private placementsbut that will not be a determinant of greater growth.
From ACMcoincide with the diagnosis: “Forward, The recent reactivation of credit should be a key factor in boosting economic activitysupported mainly by higher consumption. Added to this is the incipient recovery of real wageswhich could contribute positively to greater growth dynamics.”
Numbers are adjusted for the fall in activity in 2024
For the consultant ACM, the fall in GDP in 2024 will exceed 3%. According to your report, if in the last quarter of the year it remains at the same level observed during the third quarter, economic activity would contract by 3.1%.
“We estimate that real GDP would have fallen 3.2% in 2024 given the contraction in the first months of the year. By 2025, we continue to maintain that the dynamics of activity will not be able to exhibit a sustained upward trend, as long as the current exchange controls persist,” said the chief economist of the SBS GroupJuan Manuel Franco.
For its part, since Outlier They adjusted the values taking into account the 10 percentage point reduction in the PAIS tax rate that was applied since September 2024. In this context, They limited the annual contraction projection for 2024 to -3%.
From lcgmeanwhile, agree with the number stated. “We believe that for the remainder of the year, the path will be one of weak growth, with slight monthly increases and a wide sectoral disparity,” they expressed and asserted that, for them, there would be a drop in activity of 3.1%above what was foreseen in the Budget.
Source: Ambito
