Food prices
Price increase for coffee expected
Green coffee is traded at top prices on the raw material exchanges. According to experts, this will only have a noticeable impact on coffee drinkers in Germany in a few months.
Consumers in Germany will probably have to pay more money for coffee in the coming year. “Coffee prices will rise,” said agricultural market expert Carlos Mera from Rabobank in London. An increase of at least 30 percent can be expected for coffee in the lower price range in large packs. Smaller packs, strong brands and capsules are less affected.
The price of arabica beans traded on the ICE commodity exchange in New York rose this week to more than 320 US cents per US pound (454 grams). This is the highest price since 1977, Mera said, without taking inflation into account. This year alone, green coffee prices have risen by around 70 percent. The consequences will only have an impact on end consumers in 6 to 9 months, says Mera.
The stock market price forms a basis for the global coffee price. Only a portion of global stocks are traded directly on the raw materials exchange. Most so-called futures contracts are not actually delivered. For manufacturers and processors, they often provide security for prices and delivery quantities.
“We as coffee roasters will have to act.”
Market leader Tchibo also believes further price increases are unavoidable. “We as coffee roasters will have to act. When and how we can’t say exactly yet. The price drama we’re seeing isn’t going away any time soon,” said a spokesman. Coffee warehouses around the world are empty. There is therefore no buffer to compensate for this. Tchibo only announced in April that it would increase prices due to rising costs.
The main reason for the price increase is the situation in the most important producing country, Brazil. “Due to severe drought this year, production expectations for Arabica coffee are declining. The trees primarily produce leaves and not cherries,” said expert Mera. The harvest is expected to be even worse than the last one, which was also disappointing.
Other reasons include increasing global demand and longer transport times around the Red Sea. According to Mera, the unrest surrounding the now postponed EU forest protection law and possible tariffs in the USA also play a role. He expects the situation on the stock market to ease somewhat at the beginning of 2025. The German Coffee Association and the coffee roasters Melitta and Dallmayr did not want to comment.
People in Germany drink an average of 164 liters per person
Coffee drinkers have recently had to dig deeper into their pockets. The prices for pads and capsules rose by 25 percent between 2020 and 2023, and coffee beans were a good 20 percent more expensive. Like many industries, coffee producers are struggling with the consequences of climate change. According to a study by Swiss scientists published in 2022, the area best suited to Arabica coffee could decline by about half by 2050.
According to the German Coffee Association, the two varieties Arabica and Robusta account for almost 99 percent of global production. Arabica is the most widespread. 60 percent of the coffee imported into Germany and consumed here comes from Brazil and Vietnam. In Germany, an average of 164 liters of coffee is drunk per capita every year.
dpa
Source: Stern
