However, the Fund’s estimate is in line with what private consultants project. According to the latest Survey of Market Expectations published by the Central Bank, analysts expect a growth of the Gross Domestic Product for 2022 of 2.9% (+0.4 percentage points compared to the previous survey).
Of course, although the report makes no reference to the subject, private economists estimate these forecasts assuming that Argentina reaches an agreement with the IMF.
Precisely this week there will be a concrete sign of how the negotiations are advancing since some 700 million dollars must be paid to the agency this Friday, a payment that will indicate that the authorities’ will is to achieve a new program with the Fund.
challenging context
From reading the IMF report it turns out that, although the world will continue to grow – 4.4% in 2022 – the international context is challenging for the country.
On the one hand, there are the financial risks. It happens that to the extent that advanced economies raise interest rates, to contain inflation that is no longer considered transitory, threats to financial stability increase.
Y particularly for emerging and developing markets with heavy foreign currency indebtedness, as is the case of Argentina.
The increase in interest rates – warns the Fund – can give rise to problems in capital flows to less developed nations, difficulties with their currencies and greater fiscal problems.
partners in trouble
On the other hand, lowered the growth outlook for the country’s largest trading partners. the main, Brazil, would register a rise in its GDP of 0.3% this year, with a cutout of 1.2 points compared to the previous estimate. It also lowered the forecast for 2023, taking it to 1.6% (-0.4 percentage points).
China, the second most important partner for Argentina, would grow 4.8% that, although it is a relatively high increase, it is far from the high rates that the Asian giant was able to register.
Source From: Ambito
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