Among the Danish bank’s scandalous predictions, the fall of the dollar and Nvidia doubling Apple’s size stand out. They also believe that the BRICS will go for a gold-backed currency.
The year, if there are no big news, it could be said that Wall Street is already closing it because despite some macro data that will be known, operators believe that the coming weeks will not have big movements. So The season for disseminating the forecasts that investment banks and large funds project for 2025 begins. And while some stragglers are waiting, one of those that usually stands out is the Danish bank Saxo Bankalready considered an end-of-year classic, due to its crazy forecasts. While their forecasts for the coming year always look somewhat outrageous, MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein points out that they are an attempt to create improbable but plausible forecasts, to generate debate and challenge consensus.
Outrageous prediction: Donald Trump will explode the dollar
A quick review of his predictions for 2024 show that they are very interesting and inaccurate (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is not the president-elect, oil is not $150, and GLP-1 drugs have not derailed the fitness industry. “), says Goldstein, who took the list for 2025 with appropriate caution. So, to begin, consider that there is no better starting topic than with the vision of the president-elect donald trump and the scandalous prediction that will make the dollar explodea timely decision given Trump’s threat days ago to impose 100% tariffs on the BRICS bloc countries if they seek to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This is how he explains it John HardySaxo strategist, by maintaining that in 2025, The new Trump administration will completely review the nature of the United States’ relationship with the worldimposing massive tariffs on all imports while reducing deficits with the help of a Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk.
The analyst believes that the consequences for the dollar are dire for global trade, as it cuts off the necessary supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global dollar system moving, which ironically implies the risk of a powerful rise in the dollar. Instead, he points out, safety valves are found, since global financial players are rushing to look for alternatives; China and the BRICS+ transact in gold-backed digital money and, to some extent, directly in a new gold-backed “offshore” yuan; In addition, Europe increasingly exceeds its commercial relations in the euro; and gold-pegged cryptocurrencies are added to the mix, as this dramatic new chapter in global financial markets begins. “It’s an interesting point of view, although it should be noted here that the dollar bottomed at the end of September, and since then the DXY dollar index (today at more than 106 points) has risen 6%. The fact that Hardy says the BRICS would turn to a gold-backed currency shows the limits of alternatives to the dollar in a world where China is reluctant to get rid of its capital controls.says the MarketWatch analyst.
nvidia
Reuters
Nvidia without brakes: double Apple?
Another prediction that Goldstein highlights is that Nvidia will become Apple’s double due to the insatiable demand for Artificial Intelligence chips (AI). “This is scandalous only in terms of magnitude and not narrative. Meanwhile, Apple and the other tech giants see their profits suffer as they shell out money to companies like Nvidia to keep up in an AI arms race,” the Danish bank maintains.
An expert on the subject recalled that the saying goes that in a gold rush, the only operators who are sure to make a fortune are the shovel sellers, since most miners will not find gold, and What is being seen in the AI space looks a lot like a gold rushas monopolistic IT giants and a host of startups have rushed to seize the golden promises of generative AI. These extend from Meta’s Metaverse to incredible number-crunching loads to power new applications like autonomous driving.
The biggest shovel seller in the AI gold rush is Nvidia, designer of the powered chips and, just as important, the software ecosystem at the heart of most AI data centers. Saxo explains that in 2025, Nvidia’s success will be further enhanced with the volume availability of its revolutionary Blackwell chip of 208 billion transistors, a chip that increases the performance of AI calculations per unit of energy consumed by up to 25 times compared to the previous H100 generation. With the AI arms race intensifying, as no giant or even government wants to be left behind, and as AI data center electricity costs have skyrocketed, insatiable demand for more powerful Blackwell chips and yet less energy hungry, makes Nvidia the most profitable company of all time. “It comfortably surpasses Apple’s record profit of $105 billion next year, and with much faster growth factored into expectations, its market capitalization nearly doubles again, making it twice the size of Apple. . This makes it stand out above all other companies in the world with a value of 7 trillion dollars, or 10% of the global stock market,” predicts the bank, adding that Valuations of Apple and other tech giants suffer on a relative basis as their profitability is hit by the need to build titanic data centers to keep up with the AI gold rush.
Other predictions: Berkshire, China, OPEC…
Another notable scenario is that a natural disaster bankrupts a large insurer, which does not seem impossible given that rain and flood events that had been considered 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000 continue to occur. In that scenario, Berkshire Hathaway would be the winner, as it has enough capital to weather any panic and would be able to gain market share, Saxo predicts.
Among other, scandalous predictions also stand out: China’s stimulus will reach 50 trillion yuan (7 trillion dollars); scientists successfully bio-print a human heart; OPEC dissolves due to the rise of electrification; The United States imposes a tax on artificial intelligence data centers; and the pound erases the post-Brexit discount against the euro.
Source: Ambito
