“We understand that the socio-economic situation is challenging, which is why we are taking a flexible and pragmatic approach” pointed out the economist, referring to the Fund’s vocation to reach an understanding.
In this regard, he argued that “we hope to make even more progress in the coming days” in reference to the negotiations.
The truth is that Ámbito was able to know that there were intense virtual conversations throughout the weekend between the staff and the Martin Guzmán team.
It should be remembered that this week Argentina must face a payment of more than 700 million dollars. The hardening of the official discourse against the Fund generates in the markets the fear that this payment will not be made. However, international analysts estimate that Argentina will finally comply with this obligation given that this “in the middle of negotiations”, as ratified by Gita.
more growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved growth projections for the Argentine economy. The latest update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released Tuesday in Washington, forecasts that Argentine gross domestic product will grow 3% in the current year and 2.5% in 2023.
is observed an improvement of 0.5% for both 2022 and 2023, in relation to the estimates made by the IMF in its previous report of last October. Despite the positive recalculation, the 3% projected by the multilateral organization is below the 4% projected in the draft budget prepared by the Ministry of Economy. Furthermore, in official spheres there is the expectation of higher growth, based – they point out – on the solidity shown by the economic recovery.
However, the Fund’s estimate is in line with what private consultants project. According to the latest Survey of Market Expectations published by the Central Bank, analysts expect a growth of the Gross Domestic Product for 2022 of 2.9% (+0.4 percentage points compared to the previous survey).
Of course, although the report makes no reference to the subject, private economists estimate these forecasts assuming that Argentina reaches an agreement with the IMF.
Precisely this week there will be a concrete sign of how the negotiations are advancing since some 700 million dollars must be paid to the agency this Friday, a payment that will indicate that the authorities’ will is to achieve a new program with the Fund.
challenging context
From reading the IMF report it turns out that, although the world will continue to grow – 4.4% in 2022 – the international context is challenging for the country.
On the one hand, there are the financial risks. It happens that to the extent that advanced economies raise interest rates, to contain inflation that is no longer considered transitory, threats to financial stability increase.
Y particularly for emerging and developing markets with heavy foreign currency indebtedness, as is the case of Argentina.
The increase in interest rates – warns the Fund – can give rise to problems in capital flows to less developed nations, difficulties with their currencies and greater fiscal problems.
partners in trouble
On the other hand, lowered the growth outlook for the country’s largest trading partners. the main, Brazil, would register a rise in its GDP of 0.3% this year, with a cutout of 1.2 points compared to the previous estimate. It also lowered the forecast for 2023, taking it to 1.6% (-0.4 percentage points).
China, the second most important partner for Argentina, would grow 4.8% that, although it is a relatively high increase, it is far from the high rates that the Asian giant was able to register.
Source From: Ambito
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