The trust of the Argentine companies in the economy improved dramatically this year if it is compared against what happened in 2023, which was a period of high uncertainty due to the electoral context, and the positioning of an “outsider” candidate, such as Javier Milei, who raised all kinds of doubts.
According to a survey by the international consulting firm Grant Thornton, business confidence stood at 65% during the third quarter of the year. In the second half of 2023, it had been just 24%.
It is a complex index, which includes 35 variables, which – in the case of Argentina – takes a sample of 77 companies considered between medium and large.
The trust of Argentine companies
Since 2020 it is persistent that The confidence of Argentine companies is below that of their peers in South America and at a global level. In the last study, in the region it was 76%, while in the world, it was 74%.
The index, in turn, reveals that, in the third quarter, There was a drop in expectations in relation to the April-June period. In that period, it had been 69 points. The decrease is likely due to the May dollar “mini crisis”after the Central Bank (BCRA) announced a reduction in interest rates that did not convince the market.
According to Fernando Furci, the CEO of Grant Thornton In Argentina, the conditions of the fourth quarter would have already changed. “It is very likely that, when we analyze the data from the fourth quarter survey, it will show us that it recovered”he explained in a talk with journalists.
Inflation, billing and dollar: expectation of the local business community
The survey to The global level covers 10,000 companies, which in terms of the United States economy are medium-sized, but which, in the case of Argentina, can be considered large.. The consulting firm added four questions about the local reality to the global survey.
By caseinflation is the main factor to take into account when making decisions for 62%. The slowdown in prices recorded this year is noticeable in the spirit of managers. In the first quarter, it was the main factor of concern for 70% and in the second, for 69%.
On the other hand, 56% of companies believe that their billing will improve in real terms, that is, above inflation. It also points out that the sales price will improve for 58% of those consulted, which indicates an improvement in profitability.
But due to the delay in the real exchange rate, which makes the prices of Argentine exportable supply more expensive, Only 25% of those consulted believe that there may be an improvement in foreign sales. A positive indicator is that the percentage of companies that plan to hire personnel recovered strongly. In the third quarter it was 42% against 35% in the second half of last year.
Source: Ambito
