Construction does not find a floor and in October it dropped 4%, as reported by INDEC. While it falls 24.5% year-on-year.
The construction suffered a 4% monthly decline in the seasonally adjusted series during October, the worst since March, and so far this year it has dropped 29%, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). In the interannual variation, it yields 24.5%.
Although, the trend-cycle series index registers a positive variation of 2.2% compared to the previous month.
Construction supplies
The apparent consumption data of construction inputs show a drop of up to 51.2% in October compared to the same month last year. Those who fell the most were ceramic sanitary ware (-51.2%); followed by granite and calcareous mosaics (-34.9%); round iron and steels for construction (- 32.9%); manufactured concrete (-27.3%); in the rest of the inputswhich includes faucets, seamless steel tubes and glass for construction, (-27.2%); and so (-27.0%); in hollow bricks (-26.3%); ceramic floors and coverings (-24.2%); portland cement (-19.9%); asphalt (-16.6%); plasterboard (-12.8%); construction paints (-9.6%); and limes (-4.9%).
Meanwhile, if the variations of the accumulated during the ten months of 2024 as a whole are analyzed in relation to the same period of the previous year, drops of up to 47.8%headed by asphalt. They follow him granite and calcareous mosaics (-42.6%); round iron and steels for construction (-42.3%); ceramic sanitary ware (-41.9%); manufactured concrete (-36.4%); ceramic floors and coverings (-31%); and so (-29.5%); hollow bricks (-28.4%); portland cement (-26.3%); plasterboard (-24.4%); in the rest of the inputs, which includes taps, seamless steel tubes and glass for construction, (-23.5%); limes (-14.1%); and construction paints (-7.8%).
Jobs
As a complement to construction data, INDEC publishes information on the registered jobs in private activity. In September 2024, a drop in 15.9% compared to the same month of the previous year, while in the accumulated January-September 2024, the drop was 17.6% compared to the same period of the previous year.
It should be noted that the information refers to jobs on which contributions are made to the pension system.
What is expected for November?
“A change in expectations is beginning to be noticed in the construction sector,” highlights the consulting firm LCG. This is because, among companies that carry out private works, the participation of actors who expect a recovery in the next 3 months increased, 20.8% compared to 16.5% last month. Something similar happened with those that carry out public works, 19% are more optimistic compared to 14.7% last month.
For November, the Construct index anticipates a seasonally adjusted monthly fall of 3.2% and AFCP sustained year-on-year falls in AFCP Cement Shipments (-14.5%). And in the case of industry, automotive production would have suffered 5.1% y/y according to ADEFA.
In that sense, LCG highlighted that “even though sectoral data remains to be known, it is clear that the recovery of both industry and construction is still not strong and is subject to fluctuations.”
“However, we maintain our projection of a cumulative fall in the 12 months of 9% for the industry in 2024 and 27% for construction activity. The recovery that could occur in both sectors in the last two months of the year will leave statistical drag by 2025, but it will be lower,” they concluded.
Source: Ambito
