He credit in Argentina closes a historic year. After years of growth lagging behind inflation, exchange rate stability and an improvement in the main economic variables promoted a notable increase in credit lines, both in pesos and in dollars. Interest rates, which at the end of December 2023 exceeded 100%, fell sharply and marked a significant improvement.
Although the country still maintains a low percentage of credit in relation to its GDP (it only represents 8% compared to nearly 30% regional average), the outlook is optimistic, consolidating an encouraging scenario for the future. In fact, it is worth highlighting that the real balance of total credit, both in pesos and dollars to the private sector, accumulates real year-on-year growth of 12%, reversing negative year-on-year rates for the first time in six years.
How all credit lines close in 2024
According to data from the end of November from the Central Bank, the loans in pesos to the private sector They represent an increase of $34 billion throughout the year, equivalent to 216.6% annually, which is above inflation for the period, consolidating 7 consecutive months of growth in real terms. Although the economic recession was a major factor in the “stoppage” that credits suffered in the first part of the year, since May a recovery began to be seen in all lines.
In the same sense, the Personal loans also have year-on-year growth higher than inflation (381.7%) with a real advance compared to the last year, of 80%. “The growth of personal loans was due to the fact that they had somehow lagged behind the line of credit cards. In the long term, these segments move more or less evenly, maintaining a certain parity in the amounts owed. Yes We take personal + cards = 100 as a reference, generally they are 50 to 50. Last year there were 27 loans and 73 cards. Lately there were 61 cards and 39 loans. For this reason, we think that next year more personal loans will be placed than balances financed with credit cards.”said Guillermo Barbero, partner of First Capital Group when consulted by Scope.
On the other hand, the mortgage loansincluding UVA had a considerable increase, of 151.7% but below the price index. In any case, a rebound has been observed since September that will be consolidated in 2025. It is worth remembering that this line was strongly promoted with the Asset Regularization Regime, better known as “money laundering” that allowed reinvestment in homes.
As for the collateral creditsthe interannual variation is 212.6% while commercial loans had an increase of 212%. Lastly, and no less important, is the performance of loans in dollars, which increased by 192.6% in the year vs. 2023, which closed with a growth of just 40%.
Outlook for 2025
Guillermo Barbero, FCG Partner He highlighted that, from his perspective, personal loans will be the favorites in 2025, in principle because more competitive rates are expected and because families would choose to use this line that allows, in addition to obtaining larger amounts, a better payment term than a credit card. On the other hand, it reaffirms that there is still a long way to go to reach the historical highs of 2018.
On the other hand, since Nation Bank, In consultation with this medium, they highlighted that they hope to increase both the quantity and amount of personal and mortgage loan placements, “consolidating our position as leaders in the sector. In personal loans, we plan to continue optimizing the digital offer for our clients, through new benefits and the launch of credit lines aimed at strategic destinations, in order to further diversify our product portfolio. In the same way, in the case of the Mortgage product, digitalization will be deepened, reducing times and streamlining the process. operation”.
Adrián Scosceria, Business Banking Manager at Banco Macro, estimated that 2025 will be a very important year in terms of personal credit volumes. “It is a great challenge to be able to satisfy what we expect will be a greater demand for loans from companies, both SMEs, medium-sized companies and corporates. All these segments are going to need more credit, finance their working capital , becoming more efficient every day,” he noted.
From Business Banking of this entity, they maintain that many clients nationwide had paralyzed projects due to macroeconomic difficulties that, if the decline in inflation is consolidated, will require medium and long-term financing, between 3 and 5 years.
Besides, Gustavo Manriquez, CEO of Banco Supervielle, He highlighted that the Argentine financial system “has enormous potential to grow. We are facing a great opportunity to continue strengthening access to financing and promote the economic development of the country. Our objective for 2025 is clear: to consolidate and strengthen ourselves as one of the main actors of the Argentine financial market,” he told this medium about the company’s plans.
Banks explore new alternatives
A novelty that largely highlights the future of local financing was what was said by Claudio Cesariopresident of the Association of Banks of Argentina (ABA), which brings together private entities, within the framework of the year-end closing. Thinking about 2025, banks are exploring new alternatives to finance the expansion of mortgage loans. In addition to capturing deposits from savers, they would be considering, by 2025, issuing Negotiable Obligations and shares in the capital market, in order to have greater financial support against the increase in demand for loans for the purchase of homes. At the end of this year, many are already delaying folders to be able to manage the funds.
“Next year there will be issues of bank bonds and even shares to be able to grow in capital and continue banking credit,” Cesario said. Looking ahead to 2025, the president of ABA projected that the resurgence of credits will be consolidatedwhich will contribute to the growth of the economy and will be beneficial for families and companies.
In this optimistic context for the future, it is worth highlighting, finally, the role of fintech ecosystem whose vertical in credits is still relegated. In this sense, Julián Sanclemente, CEO of Alprestamo He stated that fintech has a key role in this challenge. “The Argentine market has extraordinary potential to grow. But for this renaissance of credit to translate into real development, we must work together: banks, fintech, regulators and users. The path is set, but it will be up to each of us to take advantage of this opportunity with a strategic look and focus on the future”.
Source: Ambito
