The report, prepared by FocusEconomics, compiles projections that include estimates on the price of the dollar for December of next year, as well as outlooks on inflation and economic activity.
How much will the dollar be in 2025?
The updated consensus among the experts consulted indicates an exchange rate lower than that projected last month, estimating that the wholesale dollar It will reach $1,403 by the end of 2025.
This reflects a downward adjustment in expectations for the price of the dollar, getting closer to the projections of the Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputo, presented in the 2025 Budget. According to said documentthe wholesale dollar is expected to close December of next year at $1,207that is, about $200 above its current value (an increase of 19%) and $200 below FocusEconomics estimates.
The consulting firms, banks and companies that project a lower dollar for 2025 are: Pezco Economics ($1,028), Allianz ($1,100), Empiria Consultores ($1,171), EIU ($1,195) and Equilibra ($1,200). Those who expect a higher exchange rate in December 2025 are Standard Chartered ($1,875), S&P Global Ratings ($1,800), Analytica Consultora ($1,700) and UBS ($1,637).
According to FocusEconomics, “both the official and parallel exchange rates will depreciate from current levels by the end of 2025.” In this sense, it is calculated that the accumulated devaluation in the next 12 months will be 38%.
Analysts’ doubts for 2025
The discrepancy between the Government’s projections and those of analysts will depend on several key factors: the stability of the exchange rate and inflation, the continuity in the accumulation of reserves by the Central Bank, and the policies related to exchange rate unification and the elimination of the stocks, in a political context influenced by the mid-term elections next October.
In addition, it will be essential to observe how the Government addresses the reduction of monthly inflation and the controlled devaluation of the official dollar, currently managed through a crawling peg 2% monthly. Some analysts anticipate that this pace of devaluation could be reduced by half in the first quarter of the year.
“The economy should expand above the Latin American average next year thanks to lower inflation and interest rates, in addition to the Government’s liberalizing reforms,” summarized by FocusEconomics.
Source: Ambito
