He consumption in supermarkets and independent supermarketskey retail trade channels in Argentina, registered a month-on-month increase of 1.5% in November, marking the first rebound so far this year.
This data, highlighted by the consulting firm Scentia, represents relief for a sector hit by inflation and economic restrictions, although it still faces significant challenges in year-on-year terms.
A change in the monthly trend
The month-on-month rebound in November is relevant for several reasons. Firstly, it contrasts with the downward trend observed since April, when consumption levels hit bottom. Although the following months showed a slowdown in the year-on-year decline rates, no increases had been recorded compared to the previous month.
Additionally, November has one fewer day than October, which makes the 1.5% increase in seasonally adjusted terms even more notable. This data suggests that, despite the difficulties, Argentine families adjusted their consumption patterns, prioritizing the purchase of essential goods in a context of partial recovery of purchasing power.
Factors behind recovery
The slowdown in the pace of price increases was a key factor. According to the report, prices in self-service channels reached a peak in March, with a year-on-year increase of 345.5%, but have since moderated, closing November with a growth of 312.5%. This allowed consumers to purchase more products with the same nominal income.
The beginning of the end of the year also has an influence, since November and December tend to be months of greater commercial activity due to the festivities. However, unlike 2023, this rebound was not driven by specific stimulus policies, such as the electoral plans known as “platita”, which gives greater strength to the recovery trend.
Performance by regions and channels
Scentia’s analysis reveals disparities geographically and between types of businesses.
- Supermarket chains: Although this channel showed a year-on-year drop of 13.2% in the accumulated year, in November the decline was less in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA) (-15.6%) than in the interior provinces (- 19%).
- Independent self-services: This channel, which includes “Chinese” self-service stores, recorded an accumulated annual drop of 13.5%. However, November figures show a convergence between AMBA and the interior, with similar contractions of 20.9% and 19.4%, respectively.
By product categories
The data also reveals significant differences between consumption categories:
- Alcoholic drinks and impulsive consumption were the most affected, with drops of 19.2% and 18.6%, respectively.
- Food and perishableon the other hand, maintained more moderate declines, with contractions of 9.1% and 8.7%. This reflects a prioritization of essential products in consumer purchasing decisions.
Expectations for December and 2025
The report highlights that the year-on-year comparison base will be lower in December, due to the slowdown in consumption in the same month of 2023. This could consolidate the recovery trend in the year-on-year figures. Furthermore, if inflation continues to moderate, as economic projections suggest, consumption could register positive variations in the first months of 2025.
However, the sector faces structural challenges, such as the high accumulated inflationary burden, the loss of purchasing power and the need to adapt to changes in consumer preferences.
The rebound in consumption in November marks a turning point in a particularly complicated year for retail trade in Argentina. Although the figures are still far from optimistic in annual terms, the month-on-month increase suggests that the sector is beginning to find some stability. For 2025, the key will be to maintain this trend and accompany it with policies that strengthen the purchasing power of families and promote a sustained recovery.
Source: Ambito
