According to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CPO), between January and March $29.7 billion expire in public securities in local currency, equivalent to 25% of the total debt for next year. In this framework, the Ministry of Economy must offer attractive titles in the next tenders if it wants to refinance that entire amount.
“The renewals are good because the rates are attractive if we compare them with the dynamics of expected inflation,” he said, in dialogue with Scope, Amilcar Collanteeconomist at Profit Consultores. “Financial investors also compare the dollar rate; The strong exchange rate appreciation, together with the rate, gave very important returns in hard currency (“carry trade”).“he added.
Furthermore, the analyst explained that “exporters and importers are placed in these instruments, since they pay above the “crawling peg”, today around 2% per month, but with the promise of a reduction towards 1%. “For this reason, exporters have incentives to settle before and importers to pay later,” he added.
However, It is worth remembering that, in the last tender on December 11, the Treasury renewed only 87% of the maturitiessince it placed debt for $5.4 billion, when it had to pay $6.2 billion. In parallel, the Ministry of Economy sought to alleviate January maturities with an exchange, but it barely managed to “roll” $660,000 million.
The market highlighted that The rates validated by the portfolio led by Luis Caputo were considerably high. The 2.93% yield of the shortest Lecap in the last tender was more than half a percentage point above the inflation reported by INDEC for November.
In the same sense, returns were also well above market rates which, in the secondary market, are, on average, close to the 2.5%.
It should be noted that, at times in which the Treasury was unable to renew all of the maturities in pesos, Caputo’s portfolio alleged that it was a result of the fact that The fiscal and monetary anchor is generating a return of resources from the public sector to the private sector, which results in greater credit to families and companies, known as “Anker” point.
Debt in dollars for the first quarter exceeds US$6 billion
Besides, maturities in dollars represent about US$6.5 billionequal to 41% of total hard currency liabilities throughout the year. This is in concept debt, both with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as with other international organizations and private bondholders.
Last October, the Treasury purchased US$2,701 million from the Central Bank, in order to cover capital payments in dollars and euros corresponding to the bonds. Globales and Bonares, maturing in January 2025. The income payments for those same bonds, which also mature in January, They were already insured with a previous purchase of dollars.
It occurs in a framework in which the Net reserves give approximately a “red” of US$4,773 million. In this framework, this Thursday the Government formally requested a new agreement with the IMF, while not ruling out the possibility of agreeing on a repo-type loan with international banks.
Source: Ambito
