In Decemberthe inflation expected by the population for the next twelve months registered a drop of 5.2 percentage points, and Thus, it went from 50.2% in November to 45% this monthaccording to a recent survey.
The data arises from the latest survey carried out by the Finance Research Center (CIF) of the Business School of the Torcuato Di Tella Universityafter presenting the results of the Inflation Expectations Survey (EI) for December 2024.
Inflation: what is expected for 2025
According to the median, December’s expected inflation decreased to 30%. In this regard, Sebastián Auguste, director of the UTDT Finance Research Center, said: “The expected inflation registers a new drop in our December measurement, based on data collected between the 5th and 16th of the current month. The decreasing trend observed since January continues, with the exception of June, when a slight increase was recorded“.
And he added that “the average registered value for expected inflation for the next 12 months is 45%, the lowest level since January 2021.”
The expert explained that with an annual inflation expectation of 45% like the one recorded this month implies an average (effective) monthly rate for the next 12 months of 3.14%. “In December, inflation expectations decrease for the three regions. In November, the average inflation expectation for the next 12 months was 55.4% in GBA, 53.8% in CABA and 46.8% in the Interior. This month, they decrease to 52.2%, 50% and 40.6% respectively,” he added.
During the month of December, the study revealed that the behavior registers differences between households of different educational levels, these differences increase compared to previous months, reaching a gap of 3.2 percentage points, compared to the gap of 1. 6 percentage points in November, and 3 points in October, in September the gap was greater, reaching 6.7 percentage points.
For the homes of higher income inflation expectations They went from 50.6% in November to 43.8% this month. For the homes of low income, expected inflation went from 49.3% in November to 47% in December.
“Regarding the measurement of monthly inflation, since May 2023 the survey has included a question about what respondents expect from prices for the next 30 days. According to this measurement, the expected average in December is 6.61 % when in November it was 5.21%,” Auguste concluded.
Source: Ambito
