On par with the Federal Co-participation, which plummeted 10% in 2024, discretionary transfers suffered a sharp drop last year, marking another blow to provincial coffers. However, although the outlook was adverse for all districts, Some exhibited a better performance, especially a handful that showed good harmony with the Casa Rosada.
Specifically, discretionary or non-automatic transfers, also known as Contributions to the National Treasury (ATN), They are transfers that the Nation makes to the 24 jurisdictions of the country without there being a law that regulates them. They are divided between current and capital goods.
The controversy over this item centers between those who see it as an important tool for federalism, complementary to Co-participation, and those who consider it a disciplining weapon that governments use to align provincial administrations behind them: the old whip and checkbook
The collapse of discretionary transfers hit the provinces
This last aspect seemed to prevail in 2024, where some districts that worked in harmony with the Casa Rosada in different initiatives were rewarded, while opposition efforts exhibited the worst figures. According to a survey of Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF)the Non-automatic transfers fell a real 76% last year. All jurisdictions, with the exception of CABA, suffered a significant decrease in the index.
It happens that the City of Buenos Aires was benefited by precautionary measure 1861/2022 of the Supreme Court, ordering to restore the Federal Co-participation point that Alberto Fernández had taken away from it in 2020.
For this reason, the district led by Jorge Macri received 33.2% more ATN than in 2023. Although the mayor of Buenos Aires shows good harmony with Javier Milei in the national arena, Freedom Advances (LLA) It operates as an opposition force in the territory, one of the most critical fronts between two ideologically close forces.
In the same vein, Politikón Chaco revealed that the least profound declines took place among provinces with allied efforts or light opposition to the national government.
Thus, following the rise in CABA, the jurisdictions that exhibited the smallest fall were Neuquen (-61.7%), Holy Cross (-69.3%), Jujuy (-70.2%), Mendoza (-79.2%), Chubut (79.8%), Jump (-82%), Tucuman (-82.5%) and Misiones (-82.7%).
Going deeper into the political dimension, the first two are administered by Rolando Figueroa and Claudio Vidaltwo provincialist chiefs, like the missionary Hugo Passalacqua and the salteño Gustavo Saenzboth former allies of Unión por la Patria (UP). In the last stretch of 2024, the President exhibited a turn in his game of temporary alliances and weighted forces with local dynamics, relegating the extinct to the background Together for Change (JxC)who knew how to be his support in Congress.
However, within the yellow league, some leaders showed better dynamics with Nación than others. The radicals Alfredo Cornejo (Mendoza) and Carlos Sadir (Jujuy) are two of them; Both were among the least affected by the ATN cut. The wayward Peronist also appears in the platoon Osvaldo Jaldo (Tucumán), who broke with UP to support the Government, and the Chubut native Ignacio Torresfrom the PRO, with a sparkling past with the ruling party and at least harmonious current events.
With nuances, the governors are already setting their sights on this year’s legislative elections, in which LLA will seek to put its own names at the head of all the lists. Arriving with accounts in order will be one of the main assets inland.
The worst of 2024
On the contrary, Rioja (-98.1%), The Pampa (-96%) and Formosa (-95.9%) were the provinces that suffered the most from the collapse of discretionary transfers. The pattern, in this case, is that all of them are administered by the hard wing of Peronism. It is about Gildo Insfran, Sergio Ziliotto and Ricardo Quintelathree of the leaders who achieved re-election in 2023 and who, together with Axel Kicillofthey lead the most visceral opposition to Javier Milei. Province of Buenos Aires, for its part, ranked tenth, with a collapse of 84.3%.
When measuring the total non-automatic transfers of the year on a per capita basis, CABA is also positioned at the top: the funds raised are equivalent to about $209,119 per inhabitant; The podium is completed with Santa Cruz and Neuquén, which raised $91,253 and $78,635 per inhabitant respectively. At the opposite extreme, the provinces of Córdoba and Santa Fe exhibit the lowest levels of transfers per inhabitant: it was only $6,057 and $5,005 respectively.
MAY PACT OFFICIAL PHOTO
Presidency
The adjustment on the ATN is registered in the chainsaw plan that the libertarian administration has been carrying out since it took office in December 2023. In this framework, automatic transfers, that is, those that are part of the Federal Co-participation, fell a real 10% year-on-year last year.
The disaggregation shows that, when considering the individual evolution in the jurisdictions of shipments by automatic transfers, in all cases the real variation was positive, with the exception of the province of Buenos Aires. Santa Cruz (+8%) was the jurisdiction with the greatest increase and Buenos Aires (-6.5%), the only one with a real interannual decrease.
All of these aspects are fronts that the Nation and the governors keep open with less or greater intensity according to the political team of each administration.
Added to this cocktail is Milei’s decision not to discuss a new Budget for 2025 and to extend the one for 2023, which was in force this year. Such a scenario will give greater firepower to the Casa Rosada, which will have freedom of action to reassign games as desired and piacere. The scenario worries provincial leaders, especially opponents, who fear being victims of discretion.
Source: Ambito
