The official dollar continues to appreciate a rate of 2% monthlythe market warns again and again that is late and the trap must be liftedbut The Government plans to reduce “crawling-peg” and hopes that certain conditions will be met to end exchange obstacles. Likewise, there is talk of a path of managed float and insists on coin competition. In that context, what will be the path of the dollar by 2025.
The decline of the “crawling-peg”
Analysts consider that The December inflation data will leave everything ready for the Central Bank (BCRA) to slow down the ‘crawling peg’ from 2% to 1% monthlyalthough the official budget project established a rate of 1.4% monthly. In that sense, the city does not rule out that it will be a decline in stages, in line with the slowdown in inflation until it reaches 1% at the end of this year or the beginning of next.
Data from the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA) suggest that the official dollar would begin to reduce its monthly adjustment rate next month and would drop to 1.5%. In March, they expect a devaluation of 1.2%.
In this sense, the market analyst Salvador Di Stefano, known as an economics guruhe said to Scope “I see the ‘crawling’ cut but for March as well as a rate cut.” “If inflation goes down again, the crawling must accompany, according to the vision that the Government has in this regard ratified Epyca Consultores analyst Eric Paniagua.
On the other hand, the Central Bank Central Bank (BCRA)led by Santiago Bausili, anticipated that, in 2025, it will continue to focus on its fundamental mission of “continuing consolidating the decline in inflation“He also said that, To the extent that the rise in prices continues to slow down, “the slippage of the exchange rate can be adjusted and, eventually, go to a more flexible scheme.
The promise to lift the stocks
However, there is still a long way to go to lift the stocks, the regulator hinted, but it did ratify the bet on currency competition. And they pointed out that They will continue to advance in the cleaning up of the BCRA’s balance sheetrecomposing the net international reserves and that, “as certain conditions are met, progress can be made in the elimination of the exchange and capital controls still in force and, after an orderly normalization process, in the definitive unification of the exchange market. changes”.
Coin Competition
In addition, Coin competition began to be encouraged by the ruling party, partly because the shortage of pesos makes liquidity difficult for companies and the Government seeks to dollarize in some way part of the daily operations. Likewise, the rise in the value of the peso to the detriment of the dollar could cause problems for the economy and that did which encouraged that idea even more. Accounts in pesos and dollars were enabled and banks seek to promote the growth of loans in foreign currency. Likewise, there is an idea that, in the future, the payment of taxes in foreign currency may be enabled, but it is still distant.
Managed float
And finally, what the Government installed is that it will go to a managed floating model of the dollar when it lifts the stocks. It will not leave it free, but will control it in a reference price band in order to avoid sudden changes in the dollar price. That plan was revealed by Federico Furiase, and Martín Vauthiermembers of the economic team during a presentation at the Torcuato Di Tella University and begins to take flight as a very possible reality among the city’s economists.
Source: Ambito
