The Government faced the payment this Thursday of US$4,341 million that corresponding to both the payment of interest as capital of Bonares and Globalsbonds restructured in 2020 by former Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán. Given this, and without the reference of the United States, it is that Experts analyze what can happen.
Among the maturing bonds are: Bonares (AL29, AL30, AL35, AL38 and AL41) and the Globaldenominated in euros (GE29, GE30, GE35, GE38, GE41 and GE46) and in dollars (GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38 and GD41). The maturity implies US$2,822 million in capital, and another US$1,529 million in interest.
“Precisely by not having markets outside it is quite a uncertaintybut I think that the payment that is made these days, added to the rise in the yesterday’s rating from Moodysare good news for the market“he told Scopethe expert Leonardo Svirsky.
In the same vein, Eric Paniaguaanalyst Epyca Consultantsanticipated to this medium: “Today is a holiday in the United States, so there will be very little volume operated. Bonds may not see big fluctuations, even though the payout is good news for holders.”
For its part, Juan AlraPortfolio Manager at ConsultationHe added in a conversation with Ámbito: “Today being a holiday in the USA due to the death of the former president of the United States, there will not be much movement. If a strong reinvestment is expected in sovereigns with longer duration that have good expectations for next year“.
It should be noted that the Bonares holders will see the funds credited today morningbut those who have Globales will only receive the money between Friday and next week, given that the Bank of New York (BoNY) only pays tomorrow because today is a mourning holiday in the US for the death of Jimmy Carter.
The “drives” analyzed by the market
For Andrés Reschini of F2 Financial Solutionsalthough today there are “unsound references”, the market sees Moody’s rating change as positive.
What happened was that the risk rating agency reported that it raised Argentina’s rating. The debt ceiling in local currency went from Caa1 to B3 and in foreign currency from Caa3 to Caa1, as published this Wednesday by the entity.
“I understand that the payment of coupons, at least in large part, should be discounted by the market. So it seems to me that the drivers that could affect the country risk would be a little more linked to perspectives and the flow that is going to enter.“added Reschini.
The expert stressed, however, that the debt rates on US Treasury bonds are a “counterweight” for Argentine assets.
Country risk: how far it could go
For Leonardo Svirsky, ““The country risk will continue to decline to levels of 400 points”although he did not define exactly how long, he analyzed: “It seems to me that in the coming months we can safely reach those levels, because The government’s economic data has been very good, and as long as they continue to have a surplus and inflation continues to declineare very good signs for investors.”
Source: Ambito
