December did not bring good numbers in construction indicators. For case, Build Index (IC)which measures the evolution of the volumes sold to the private sector of the products sold in the sector, registered a decrease of 1.25% monthly seasonally adjusted, and remained 6.6% below the level of December 2023. In this way, the accumulated January-December 2024 closed 27.2% below the same period from the previous year.
For its part, the Portland Cement Manufacturers Association (AFCP) reported that cement dispatch fell last month by -5.4% year-on-year, while the monthly decrease was -11.9% and the accumulated -23.9%.
The data that does show a slight improvement of 2.2% – in seasonally adjusted terms – comes from the Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity (ISAC), but it responds to the month of November. It was published this Wednesday by INDEC. Still, the same report also indicates that the activity is located a -23.6% down year-on-year and -28.5% cumulatively.
Gustavo Weisspresident of the Argentine Chamber of Construction (CAMARCO), considers that the first part of 2024 marked a sharp deterioration in activity due to the end of public works, but that the sector experienced a modest recovery in the second half.
“Construction had a significant drop mainly in the first half of the year. Starting in July the decline eased, and between October and November we saw that some more employees were takenbut the numbers were below 2023,” said Weiss, in dialogue with Ámbito.
Construction employment at “historically low” levels
According to the construction situation report carried out by the Institute of Statistics and Registration of the Construction Industry (IERIC), as of October, 357,070 jobs in the industry, amount slightly higher than the previous month (+0.3%).
Although they are already completed four consecutive months in positive territoryOctober was marked by a noticeable slowdown in the month-on-month growth rate in relation to the previous two months.
“The recomposition of employment, although it represents positive progress, occurs in a context with historically low levels. The current record It is 12.5% below the average for the months of October in the period 2010-2019and only surpasses that of the year with the greatest impact of the crisis caused by the pandemic,” indicates the study.
Provincial works and private sector maintain expectations within the sector
What drove, albeit subtly, the interruption of the fall in the sector? Both the owner of CAMARCO as the business entities that make up the IC conclude in one factor: the private work.
Precisely there are the expectations for the year that began. According to the IC quote, the recovery process “it will be slow“, and will be associated with the reactivation of private works, “driven mainly by the expansion of mortgage credit and the search for investment in bricks”, they explain from Construya.
According to sector data, last year UVA mortgage loans were delivered for a total of US$830 millionof which US$240 million were approved in Decemberthe highest record since May 2018.
For its part, Weiss maintains that the activity will be able to find a path of reactivation of the hand of the private sector which is linked to large infrastructure projectssuch as oil, gas and mining.
Sector planning occurs in a context where dollar costs grew significantlyan increase that was not transferred proportionally to market prices. For example, the construction or renovation of homes costs 150% more than in 2023. The average cost starts at US$1,500 per square meter.
Regarding public works, from CAMARCO They understand that the Government’s rule is clear: is not compatible with the goal of unbreakable fiscal surplus. At least until the Nation decides to reactivate the currently paralyzed contracts.
In that sense, it cannot fail to be noted that “It would be important to continue with works that are close to completion” and that are part of the infrastructure necessary for the private sector to operate, such as roads or bridges, or intended for social good, such as hospitals or schools.
One step below are the provincial and municipal public workswhich did begin to gradually come back to life and is where Weiss bets that the future of the sector will also happen this year.
In that sense, in recent weeks there have been a series of statements from different parts of the country that point to 2025 with the continuation of local infrastructure.
To mention a few examples, the province of Santa Fe started the construction of the third lane of the Rosario-Santa Fe Highwayan investment that requires $41 billion. Gallegos River announced the availability of $26 billion to build 87 homes of the “Casa Propia” program. For its part, Neuquen He stressed that he maintains 144 works in progress and the Province of Buenos Aires assumed the reactivation of more than 350 works paralyzed by the national government.
Source: Ambito
