Global economy: China records record foreign trade before Trump

China’s exports recovered strongly in 2024 and made a significant jump shortly before Donald Trump was sworn in as the new US president. The total exports last year amounted to around 3.58 trillion US dollars (around 3.5 trillion euros), 5.9 percent above the value for 2023, as the customs authority in Beijing announced. Imports only grew by 1.1 percent and reached around 2.59 trillion US dollars.

This meant that China’s trade surplus was at a record high of just under one trillion US dollars (992 billion US dollars). Exports in December rose significantly more than analysts expected, at 10.7 percent compared to the same month last year. Imports only increased by one percent.

This is how trade with Germany went

A similar picture emerged in trade with Germany. In December, China exported 12.5 percent more to the Federal Republic than a year ago. However, imports fell by 9.6 percent. From an annual perspective, it can also be seen that China exported more to Germany in 2024, at 6.5 percent, but imported 10.7 percent fewer goods.

German companies have long been complaining about low demand in the “Middle Kingdom”. In addition, surveys by the German and European Chambers of Commerce show that companies increasingly have to localize their business in China in order to either be able to stand up to their competitors in terms of price or not to be disadvantaged by Chinese laws – for example through the requirement in public tenders to give preference to companies. that use products made in China.

This is what Trump has to do with exports

However, the background to the recent increase in exports in China could be the change of government in the USA, before which Chinese companies wanted to get their products out of the country quickly. Next week, US President-elect Trump will be inaugurated into office. Under him, the trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies could deteriorate further after the US had already threatened tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese products.

Trump’s tariffs would be a first setback for China in what will likely be a difficult foreign trade year in 2025. Exports are an important support for the People’s Republic’s economy. But trade disputes between China and the USA and the European Union are causing problems. Brussels, for example, introduced additional tariffs on electric cars manufactured in China. The USA also levied tariffs on electric cars and photovoltaic systems from the People’s Republic. A Chinese industry association recently estimated that exports of Chinese electric cars are unlikely to grow this year.

This could continue for China in 2025

Further surcharges could direct the export of cheap Chinese goods to markets outside the EU and USA and trigger trade disputes there. Meanwhile, China is still struggling with weak domestic consumption and the consequences of a years-long real estate crisis. In addition, deflation is putting pressure on companies’ profits in China, which in turn makes their products cheaper abroad, which has so far helped exports.

In order to help the economy, Beijing has already announced government funding to support it and expanded the trade-in program for old devices for new devices, such as cell phones, in order to stimulate people’s purchasing mood again. In addition, central bank chief Pan Gongsheng said today that economic policy should focus more on promoting consumption rather than investment and, for example, improve social security and people’s income.