According to a study carried out by BMO Capital Markets he gold will be the most important metal during 2025, while the silver It will be second place. The data is encouraging for mining companies operating in the country.
Despite widespread optimism, since BMO Capital Markets They told mining investors that for this year they foresee slightly more reductions than improvements in the raw materials sector, observing that the growing trend towards deglobalization could slow the economy and affect industrial demand for some metals.
The geopolitical situation influences these estimates, which will give more impetus to the gold marketsince specialists consider that “although the final structures will not be known until next year, the markets for metals and bulk raw materials had generally taken into account the bilateral tariffs between the United States and China in demand projections, but not a multilateral trade war that drags down Canada, Mexico, Europe and the main Asian economies.”
In this framework, experts maintain that due to this situation they made lower demand estimates than three months ago, added to the fact that if trade friction intensifies even more “There would be a greater downside risk to our demand forecasts.”
However, as in any war there are winners and losers, and therefore, those who bet on gold could emerge victorious. “The expectation is that the push for de-dollarization of trade will resurface in the second quarter as trade friction increases, and this could push gold to new nominal highs,” the experts considered.
How much will gold be priced in 2025?
As for the value of goldfrom BMO they estimated that the average will be around $2,750 an ounce, 3% more than its previous estimate, foreseeing that for the third quarter the value would fluctuate in the $2,850 per ounce.
Another aspect that they took into account to make these estimates is the policy that the next president of the United States, Donald Trump, will implement, which could also influence the price. “Trump plans to increase the federal budget deficit and impose higher tariffs. Both policies are inherently inflationary, paving the way for ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates, which naturally reduces the attractiveness of gold investmentsespecially given that current holdings of gold ETF “They are close to an all-time high in dollar terms.”
In this case, the brightness of the gold The collateral effects of these measures will come through another, which according to BMO, “is worth considering” due to the implications of the “second-order effects of these policies.”
But if the United States is named, China is not far behind in the race. Financial analysts informed their clients that “Chinese authorities are already considering weakening the Chinese yuan or RMB in 2025 to counter the effects of new tariffs, which could revive retail gold demand in Chinaa key driver of metal price growth earlier this year.”
At the same time, they add that another second-order effect would be if the United States exports inflation to regions with low growth, such as the EU, which could cause stagflation and accelerate the rate reduction cycle.
“Ultimately, it will be the timing of these different effects that determines the gold price swings in 2025,” concluded the report.
What can happen to the money?
With respect to silver, within the BMO report, they considered that the increase in silver prices Cryptocurrencies could affect silver more than gold in 2025. “Given the rise of cryptocurrencies and the expected support from the incoming US administration on the impact it would generate on gold demand, highlighting that gold is driven by macro trends and is considered a hedge against risk, while Cryptocurrencies remain a risk asset,” the experts concluded in the report.
Beyond these implications, BMO highlighted that the silver continues to have good long-term support, as “the transition to green energy and the electrification of the global economy drive industrial demand upwards.”
Encouraging data for Argentine mining companies
This report encourages the continuity of the gold and silver that are underway in the country and accelerate the processes for others that already have their DIA approved and have to begin the construction process.
He value of gold allowed the continuity of projects that were already ready to end their production cycle, as is the case in Santa Cruz, with the exception of Black Hillwhich continues with its scheduled deadlines.
In that Patagonian province we must add the recent acquisition of Vanguardia Hill of the Michelle projectwhich was owned by Don Nicolaswith the intention of expanding its presence in the province.
In San Juan, at the announcement of the continuity of Sailboat for ten more years, the projects are added Hualilán, Casposo and Gualcamayowhile in Río Negro the Calcatreu projectand in Salta the Lindero project.
Source: Ambito
