After a Monday complicated for Argentine assets, this Tuesday The local stock market opened higher and the country risk seems to be moving away from 600 points. This afternoon the information on the inflation of Decemberkey for the Government to implement the reduction of crawling peg of the official dollar at 1%.
Thus, the S&P Merval advances 1.6% to 2,698,001.05 points, and leads the increases, among the leading stocks: Southern Gas Carrier (+5.1%), Supervielle Group (+3.7%), and Silver Commercial Society (+3.6%).
Regarding fixed income, the country risk is located at 589 basis points and the bonds operate with slight movements: the one that rises the most is the Global 2046 (+2.1%), and the one that drops the most is Global 2030 (-0.3%).
“Beyond the last few days where the weather was not favorable for our bonds, it is crucial to closely monitor the evolution of our dollar-denominated debt and the coupon reinvestment strategy. We consider that, in an environment of favorable expectations, an important part of the reinvestments could be directed towards the longer duration sections of the yield curve“, they explained from PPI.
Inflation: the key data that the market expects
He INDEC will publish the inflation for December this Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. “All eyes are on the decision adopted by the Central Bank after this data regarding the crawling peg and the interest rate. If the CPI data is very positive (below 2.5%), and the BCRA applies a rate cut above 300 basis points, the long section of the fixed rate could have a way.”they explained from PPI.
As a reference, they highlighted that the Lecap July (S31L5) yields around 30.25% (2.23% TEM), while that of October (S31O5) is close to 28.2% (2.1% TEM). Meanwhile, taking the JAR26 (TO26) as a long reference, the new BONCAP As of June 30, 2026, it has a floor around 26.3% TEA or 1.96% TEM.
For its part, Juan Manuel Francochief economist of SBS Grouprevealed: “The most important data of the week will be the national retail inflation for December to be known today, Tuesday afternoon. We remember that the market has in prices a pronounced continuity in disinflation for 2025 and that, if inflation is December in the area of 2.5% monthly, “The government would reduce the crawling peg rate of the official dollar to 1% per month.”
And he added: “For the coming months, we believe that exchange rate calm must be maintained in order to continue with disinflation, so, in addition to the domestic macro order, what happens in global markets must be closely monitored, especially the dynamics of the Brazilian realof the international prices of the soy and international financial variables such as interest rates. US bonds and the dynamics of dollar worldwide”.
Regarding Wednesday’s tender, The expert assured that he believes that the rate to be validated will depend largely on the result of December inflation to be known on Tuesday. “If it is a level that allows the market to think about reducing the crawl and lowering BCRA rates, we could see a level of rates validated in the tender below the last tender in December,” he revealed.
Source: Ambito
