The Republican magnate donald trump will return to the White House next Monday, after being elected as the 47th president of USA on November 5 of last year, in elections that were considered in advance as “historic” due to the current geopolitical context.
The day after the preliminary results of the elections were known, the markets “celebrated” the return to power of the New York businessman with widespread increases in the main assets, a dollar that gained ground and other specific records throughout the day.
At the same time, that November 6, the greenback appreciated against the Uruguayan peso in the heat of the victory of the Grand Old Party candidate, climbing 0.49% to reach 41,763 pesos in the interbank price.
The financial advisor of Gastón Bengochea Corredor de Bolsa, Francisco Echegoyenpointed to Scope that everything seems to indicate that “the dollar will continue to strengthen” against other currencies globally in the following months, since the Federal Reserve (Fed) “hardly” lower rates in the short term as a result of the rebound in the inflation in USA.
In the last months of 2024, the economy of the North American country overheated and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 2.9% after a jump in December, with an underlying data – excluding volatile food and energy prices – of 3.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statisticswhen the annual goal of the US central bank was 2%.
The outgoing president, Joe Bidenhighlighted in the last hours in his farewell letter that the superpower consolidated itself as “the strongest economy in the world” despite the impact of “the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression” due to the pandemic, and that Trump will inherit a “stronger, more prosperous and safer” country.
The tariff plans of the new Trump administration
“The probable import tariffs that Trump will impose will also tend to accelerate inflation” in the United States, Echegoyen explained about what is one of the main concerns of Uruguayan exporters: the tariff policy that the North American leader finally carries out.
The president of the Union of Exporters of Uruguay (UEU), Carmen Porteirosaid at the end of 2024 that the measures that Trump intends to promote in terms of foreign trade could have a negative impact on the sector.
“Uruguay sells primary products as commodities. In a certain way, these end up being part of a production chain,” the leader said then and added: “to the extent that other countries such as Canada, Mexico either China are affected in their trade, due to spills, the exports from Uruguay to those countries.”
The image of Uruguay in international markets and the exchange rate
So far, there is no indication that the presidential transition taking place between Luis Lacalle Pou and Yamandu Orsi negatively affect the image of the country in the eyes of the international marketsespecially among Americans. “I think that Uruguay has a good reputation in international markets beyond the current government,” Etchegoyen commented along those lines.
“The rise in the dollar that we have seen in the last month is due to a strengthening worldwide,” he added, implying that the 2.10% increase in December (12.93% annually) was largely explained by foreign factors. and not because of uncertainties around the government program of the Wide Front (FA).
In the middle of last month, the designated minister of Economy and Finance (MEF), Gabriel Oddonetold the press that the accused “exchange delay” on the part of the productive sectors “it will not be possible to correct it in an exchange rate”, rejecting a possible intervention. However, he acknowledged that the accumulated rise in the North American currency since Trump’s victory “in some sense decompresses part of the problem” that the incoming administration will almost certainly inherit.
Regarding the investment, Oddone highlighted that Uruguay It will continue to be “a stable country with clear rules of the game” where “the State fulfills its commitments” and “the rules of market operation operate openly.” “The markets evaluate the triumph of the FA with absolute normality and tranquility. We are going to continue being a country open to the world, with the availability to attract internal investments and greatly encourage domestic investment,” he pointed out.
Source: Ambito
