World trade: USA overtakes China as Germany’s most important trading partner

The United States replaced China as Germany’s largest trading partner last year. For the first time since 2016, Germany traded more goods with the USA than with the Middle Kingdom, according to an unpublished study by the federal economic development agency “Germany Trade & Invest” (GTAI), which is available to the German Press Agency.

Pressure on Germany to join the USA

According to preliminary data, German exports and imports to the USA rose to around 255 billion euros in 2024 in the shadow of the imminent inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. This means a lead of eight billion euros over the second most important trading partner, China. The Netherlands, France and Poland follow in the other places.

Germany runs the risk of getting caught between the fronts in the event of renewed customs disputes between its two most important economic partners: “It is still unclear to what extent the USA under Trump is targeting the EU and thus also Germany in its trade policy.” According to GTAI, there is also a risk of an intensification of the US-Chinese trade conflict and corresponding pressure on Germany to join the USA.

German foreign trade overall declining

As of 2022, the trade value between Germany and China was almost 300 billion euros. The collapse in exports to China is particularly noticeable, falling by around 6.4 percent. Imports from the People’s Republic, on the other hand, only fell by 0.6 percent. China is now only in fifth place in terms of exports, but remains the undisputed leader in terms of imports.

One reason is that the Chinese economy remains weak, while the USA is benefiting from investment programs and a robust economy. German foreign trade as a whole declined in 2024, with a loss of around two percent. Exports of motor vehicles, vehicle parts and other vehicles to China were particularly hard hit.

German companies are looking for alternatives

“China is the largest vehicle market, but firstly, local value creation is also increasing and secondly, German manufacturers are struggling with growing competition from Chinese car manufacturers,” the study says. However, exports of food and electrical engineering developed positively.

German companies were increasingly looking for alternatives to China, for example in Vietnam. Its trade with Germany grew by more than eleven percent in 2024. Poland also established itself as an important market and trade with the United Kingdom recorded a slight recovery after Brexit.