Although consumers They generally have a higher inflation perception of which the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) ends, the consensus among economists is that the consumer price index of January will be between 2% and 2.4%. Instead, For the public prices would be “traveling” at a speed of 4.25% average in 30 days.
This is stated by the latest inflation expectations of the Finance Research Center (CIF) of the Torcuato Di Tella University. He public believes that inflation will rise 41.2% in the next 12 months while field work was carried out between January 2 and 15.
Therefore, it is a sample of what the public perceives, before an anticipation. What is true is that The sensation of annual inflation that the consumer has for now is the lowest since April 2020
Regarding the one waiting for 30 days, the report indicates that the average response is 4.25%, almost two points above monthly inflation. But if you take the median responses, that is, the value that is exactly in the middle of the series, between the highest and the lowest, It remains at 3%.
In that case, the median seems to approach reality more. The report states that “The average decreased from 6.61% in December to 4.25% this month, while the median decreased from 5% last month to 3% in January”. It is taken into account that the response rates for one month are higher than the annual A year.
The perception of inflation by regions
The report reports a “generalized decrease in expected inflation in all regions.” The interior of the country maintains the least expectation, while Greater Buenos Aires presents lower than City of Buenos Aires.
The expected inflation for the next 12 months The provinces is 38.8%1.8 points less than that registered last month. In GBA is 44.5%7.7 points less than December. In CABA is 47.6%2.4 percentage points lower than that registered in December (50%).
What is the inflation expected by the consultants
Estimates on Evolution of the January CPI of the consultants, however, mark a rise closer to 2%, The threshold that the government had set to reduce the monthly devaluation pace of the weight. Since February, Crawling Peg will begin to be 1% which will enhance prices.
The consultant Balance estimates that this month inflation would drop a 0.7 points Regarding the previous month, as the core inflation, which is the one that does not take into account the products and services with seasonality, it was 2.1%.
Source: Ambito
