US tariff
Ifo: Trump’s tariffs would find US exports hard
According to calculations by the IFO Institute, the punitive tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump would only generate losers-including the United States.
The punitive tariffs of US President Donald Trump against Canada, Mexico and China would damage the United States’ economy according to IFO calculations. The US exports could therefore decrease by up to 22 percent if the three countries take countermeasures to a comparable extent, as the Munich Economic Research Institute announced. Canada and Mexico, on the other hand, would not only have to fear the break -in of their exports, but also in the medium term negative consequences for industrial production. China would suffer the slightest damage.
Canada and Mexico could not escape the damage
According to data from the US government, Mexico and Canada are the two most important trading partners in the USA with a share of almost 30 percent. “While China is easier to redirect from the USA, Canada and Mexico are much more bound to the USA due to their geographical location,” said Lisandra Flach, head of the IFO Center for Foreign Affairs. Trump has now exposed the threatened tariffs against Mexico and Canada of 25 percent for 30 days. The additional tariffs of 10 percent on imports from China, on the other hand, came into force on Tuesday.
… but not the US economy either
Flach and their colleagues have calculated the effects of the tariffs in two scenarios: once without countermeasures from the three countries, once with “dollar for dollars” countermeasures to a comparable extent. Without countermeasures by Mexico, China and Canada, US exports would fall by 14 percent, in the “dollar for dollar” scenario by 22 percent.
According to the calculation, Germany, as the fourth largest trading partner in the United States, could easily benefit in both cases even in the form of higher exports, but the IFO Institute does not consider this to be very likely. “Due to Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on US imports from the EU soon, however, the chances of such export growth seem to be very low in the near future,” said Flach.
The most important trading partner of the United States in November – United States Census Bureau
dpa
Source: Stern
