The President Javier Milei He referred again on the end of the exchange controls And, in a television interview, he said that the next year will no longer be the stocks but that, if a new disbursement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), It could even happen before January 1, 2026.
“On January 1, 2026, the stocks will not exist. If there is a background disbursement we can do it faster. You have to see how the program is structured, how the funds fit, that will determine The leaving of the stocks“, the president outlined LN+.
It should be noted that, meanwhile, the government continues to negotiate A new program with the IMF, and aspires to achieve fresh funds for US $ 10,000 million. Within that framework, Luis Caputo’s administration must face strong payments this 2025the first of them of US $ 640 million, and maturities of US $ 2,500 for the whole year.
But not only the government must do two disbursements that will resent once againbut also must agree new conditions For the plan that maintains with the International Credit Agency. In this regard, although the IMF praised a fiscal adjustment applied by this administration, It does not sympathize with the strong appreciation of the weight.
In fact, this week the reduction of the “Crawling Peg “ to 1% monthly, from 2%, which will generate even more exchange delay, but with the search for decelerate inflation up to 2%. In parallel, the Central Bank (BCRA)in this context, he validated last week A new 29% tna ratesfrom the previous 32%.
CEPO: The relationship with reservations still worries
For Claudio Caprauloeconomist and director of ANALYTICS“In terms of its management, the government put inflation and monetary goals to relax the exchange rate. Everything in line with reducing the weights in circulation that in the disarmament of capital controls can go to dollars. The problem is how these weights are compared to stock of dollars from the Central Bank, the accounts still do not close“
According to this expert, the Achilles heel of this government are still negative net reserves. “Until it gets out of that situation, disarming exchange controls is a chimera. In that line it is understood that it is seen new IMF disbursements as a shortcuta bridge until the private sector contributes more dollars than he and the public sector demands. In turn, It is key that country risk continues to fall so that the treasure can place debt in foreign currency. “
Currently, Net reserves remain in negative terrain in the order of US $1,000as the analyst Fabián Medina revealed to this media, who also said that During January 2025 the departure of US dollars from the national state was US $ 8,967 million. In turn, it is important to point out that, these moments, the gross reserves of the BCRA are at US $ 29,492 million.
The stock has a deadline, according to Milei: the market reaction
For Gustavo Quintanachange operator in PRthe market took these statements “with relative tranquility“Because the horizon set by the president is distant for a country like Argentina.” But well, it reaffirms the intention of removing all restrictions. For now, there are no significant changes and it is likely that everything remains the same during the first semester, at least “he outlined.
Yet, The future dollar market in Matba-Rofex quoted with most of you, but very slight advances. Thus, for June, it “emerged” an official dollar of $ 1,141.5, while for November the contract reached $ 1,250.
“The S&P Merval took the president’s words well, although there is some cautionespecially in the agricultural sector, which does not yet liquidate due to expectation of any devaluation And they are analyzing the steps to see what is convenient in the event of selling their ‘medals’ in the market, “he told him to Scopethe economist Federico Glustein.
This expert agreed that the need for financing is key: “I think, as they said from the government, Dollars are needed to open the stocks and are achieved through investments, positive bilateral trade or failing, via private indebtedness, and today these conditions are not being givenadded to preventing currencies from being sold in the Mulc by imports and stabilization of the economy. “
As to Milei’s sayings, Gluistan said: “I think it partly gives him certainty, but also maneuver the market in a balance situation, on the one hand, but also It will demand high and positive rates not to migrate to the American currency in parallel. Therefore, You can do some pressure on parallel exchange rates At some point in the year, especially prior to elections“
Source: Ambito
