Foreign trade
Export economy “in the downward spiral”
Even growth in December does not save the annual balance sheet for “Made in Germany”. Industrial production is also bad. And the prospects are cloudy.
Negative export balance, falling industrial production: The German economy goes into a year with growing trade conflicts. Although there was an increase in the exports “Made in Germany” in December, there is another minus for the year 2024.
“The more positive figures at the end of the year can only polish up the overall negative German export balance,” says Volker Treier, head of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). “2024 was the second year in a row with falling exports – a clear sign of the declining competitiveness of German industry.”
Dirk Jandura, President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, Services (BGA), sees the export industry, which is a growth engine for the German economy in good times Countries analyzed by the OECD. “
Difficulties in important markets
Germany’s exporters delivered a total value of 1,559.7 billion euros in the past year, and thus 1.0 percent less than a year earlier. According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, imports to Germany dropped even more to Germany with a minus of 2.8 percent within a year to 1,318.5 billion euros.
China’s aggressive industrial policy is just as much the fact that US President Donald Trump makes his threats come true and makes it difficult to use tariffs in the important US market.
“With regard to the current developments in the USA, our weakness is all the more dangerous. We have to be able to counter Trump with strength in order to be able to exist in possible customs negotiations,” warns BGA President Jandura.
“Lost Year” for German foreign trade
In the final quarter of 2024, the export was one of the brakes for the German economy stuck in the recession: the exports of goods “Made in Germany” fell “much lower” than in the previous quarter, as the Wiesbaden statisticians recently found.
In December, however, exports were, according to the current figures of the Federal Office, at EUR 131.7 billion, both higher than in November 2024 (plus 2.9 percent) and above the value of December 2023 (plus 3.4 percent). Imports also attracted 111.1 billion euros in both viewing periods.
With a view to 2024, the Foreign Trade Association BGA had previously spoken of a “lost year” for German foreign trade despite such bright spots at the end of the year.
“Year to forget for German industry”
The battered German industry also finished the past year weakly because of a setback in the auto industry. In December, production in the company’s manufacturing company fell by 2.4 percent, according to the Federal Statistical Office in the monthly comparison. Production has dropped to the lowest level since May 2020.
The sector, which was important for the German economy, also lost in 2024: Compared to the year before, the Federal Office reported a decline in production by 4.5 percent.
“2024 was a year to forget for German industry,” summarizes Economist Nils Jannsen from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW). And so far there is little suggest that industrial production can make up for the loss in the current year.
According to the BGA, around 80 percent of exporters expected a further amount of quantity and sales in 2025, and according to previous information, the association expects a decrease in foreign trade sales by 2.7 percent.
The IFO Institute, which regularly query the expectations of the export-oriented industries, recently stated that the automotive industry looks particularly dark. In the metal industry, too, expectations have been negative for more than a year.
The expectations of a new federal government are high. “The downward spiral must be stopped. And we need the right course from politics,” emphasizes BGA President Jandura. DIHK foreign management chief Treier says: “Companies need less bureaucracy, lower taxes and energy costs as well as the reduction in trade barriers.”
Statistical Federal Office for Foreign Trade Statistical Statistical Office: Exports 12/2024 Press releases BGA IFO-Exporter expectations January 2025 Federal Statistical Office: Industry production 12/2024
dpa
Source: Stern
