In February, the monetary authority accumulated a positive balance of US $ 825 million for operations in the official change market. Nevertheless, Reservations deteriorated at US $ 563 million In this first fortnight, excluding the first business day (when reservations usually compensate for the fall of the last wheel of the previous month).
As for Debt payments A transfer of US $ 612 million to the International Monetary Fund for interest was highlighted. In parallel, the private sector deposits In foreign currency they approached the US $30,000 million this week, thus moving away from the Pico de U $ S34,592 million that had exhibited at the beginning of the money laundering.
Finally, this week the market noticed the Reappearance of the Central Bank (BCRA) in the bag from an increase in the operated bond volume in order to intervene the quotation of the MEP dollar and the CCLand thus keep the exchange gap at bay. According to Portfolio Personal Inversiones, the volume more that doubled of US $ 67 million au $ 135 million between Monday and Tuesday, the highest jump since the BCRA actively intervened between 10/01 and 20/01.
If the analysis period extends, Since January 7, the BCRA bought $ 2,228 million, while reservations sank at US $ 4,011 million. To the payment of Debt with private bonds He was added, according to data from consulting firm 1816 until February 7, a Fall of lace for US $ 1,864 million, debt payments for US $ 1,139 million and intervention in financial for US $ 772 million.
Why do deposits fall into dollars?
The consultant explained that the decrease in deposits and, therefore, in lace, has to do with Cash withdrawals in banks, payment of cards for tourism and use of import balances of importers. The countercharge of the decrease in deposits is the growth of the credits in dollars, the main reason why the BCRA buys currencies in the Mulc.
It is worth remembering that, after the 2001 crisis, the new monetary regulation established that all the dollars of the depositors that a bank has to sell to the BCRA, who will return them when the company has to cancel that financing. In your X account, Juan Snow concerned with concern the fact that the monetary authority is using those currencies to intervene in the exchange gap.
“This process of intervention of the borrowed argylars produces a systemic barefoot (a very different thing than the one that is sold if the dollars obtained commercially) are sold). Since this dollar, 20% of exports of goods and services do not seem to reach, the government sells dollars of deposits, “he said, although he clarified that today the bank liquidity is good And far from raising large alarms in the short term.
Can the financial account continue to compensate for the “red” of the current account?
Since the end of 2024, The dollars of money laundering and the debt in foreign currency of the companies were the most important support of the reserveswhich began to be pressured by duplication in the average monthly deficit of the Central Services balance and a reduction of 80% in the goods surplus. These factors explain the “Red” in the current account of the exchange balance, which most economists estimates that it will be deepened in 2025in a context of exchange appreciation that does not seem to be close to cutting, at least to the legislative elections.
According to an analysis of the CP consultant, “taking as reference the levels achieved in the Macri government, There is still a remnant of more than US $ 4,000 million Considering the levels of contribution in foreign currency. ” However, the contribute capacity has a limit and the government must seek alternative ways to swell their reserves, which at the moment were only limited to a temporary decline of retentions.
In this regard, economist Amilcar Collante said that until June, even with a decrease in the financial account, the ruling party obtains some air in the current account due to the dollars of the thick harvest Already the Few debt obligations That has until then.
In dialogue with the scope, the specialist said that there are between US $ 2,000 YU $ 3,000 million more to expand financing and that the government must splices the end of that dynamic with the thick harvest. From there, he warned, to continue entering dollars, there must be an agreement with the IMF that allows the country to lower. “The key is going to be between July and the elections; If the agreement with the IMF is ‘Light’ and you fall short in the financial account, you can have some stress stress“He deepened.
Source: Ambito
