The January inflation It was almost tied with the monetary policy rate of the Central Bank After the recent decline announced by the monetary authorities to align the variables with “1%crawling”. Thus, in the Markets will be in expectation of how prices evolution in the coming weeks is being developed. It is necessary to maintain an attractive performance for those who want to sell their dollars and invest in local currency.
The doubts are after knowing that At the beginning of 2025 the disinflation process is consolidated by a reduction in the rhythm of devaluation and of the problems that the real economy has to sustain a growth of consumption. In other words, when inflation goes down The Central Bank could be expected to lower the reference rates. But apparently, this would not be the case
To be consulted by Scope, he Economist Camilo Tiscornia explained that “the answer is not easy” knowing if the BCRA directory can touch the interest rate once more. “The monetary policy rate is 2.4%, they just lowered it recently, and the inflation rate is 2.2%. They are quite close, ”Tiscornia explained. The analyst considered, in that sense, that “It is still necessary that the rate is greater than inflation, So it doesn’t seem to be the time to lower it. ”
In addition, he explained that “The Government wants to maintain an attractive rate in dollars to contain the exchange rate, so that the argument would be that it is better to wait ”. The consultant said that if in February he deepens even more prices, then it would be time for the BCRA to review the reference index.
You have to take into account That, with the reduction of “1% crawling” from February 1, the monetary authority reduced the reference in order to sustain a differential that allows investors to invest in pesos instead of dollars. The last reduction resulted from a variable alignment maneuver.
Logic It would indicate that if they wait a few weeks, the reference rate will be more positive for itself, in case the price drop is reaffirmed.
In relation to the capital market, Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) He warns in his last daily report that “after the January inflation fact, The short and medium stretch of the fixed rate curve remained stable, and the Boncaps and Bontams recorded increases of up to 0.6%”.
“This performance brought some air to the TRI love long of the fixed rate curve that has been showing some weakness. However, this segment accumulates in the week between 0.1 and 0.8% direct and places its monthly effective rates in the area of 2.1/2.3% ”.
“As for the short section, the LECAPS from February to May rose modest between 0.1/0.3%. Theirars are positioned in the order of 2.3/2.5% giving a negative slope to the curve. Simultaneouslyinflation adjusted bonds decreased on Thursday throughout the curve after the good inflation data, ” PPI points out.
Source: Ambito
