He Consumer indicator (IC) of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC) showed a breakthrough 5.4% in January in the interannual comparison (AI). This implies a unstacilities of 4.3% In front of December, that is, discounting the usual seasonal effects of consumption throughout the year.
In this way, the indicator Write its first growth in several months, marking a great advance. It is an auspicious signal, although The low level of comparison of the beginning of last year should not be ignored. Desestationalized monthly expansion also reflects a considerable improvement in household consumption levels, according to the Cac.
This data is contrasted with the measurement of Scentiawhich showed that the Mass consumption He sank 10.6% Interranual in Januarydespite the fact that the comparison base was a month of low consumption level.
Consumption: item for item
When analyzing the performance of some areas in particular, there is a Generalized dynamics of interannual growth or stabilization Regarding the values of January 2024, with the exception of clothing and footwear, said the CAC.
The chapter of Transportation and vehicles showed an estimated growth of 4.6% In January, contributing positively 0.6% to the interannual variation of the IC. The item was traction by the Automobile patent progresswhich reached its highest level since August 2018.
Recreation and culture showed in January a growth of 1.9% AI (with a positive contribution of 0.1 pp to IC). The improvement in real income and a very low comparison base, made the item show their first year -on -year advance since August 2024.
Regarding the section of Housing, Rentals and Public Servicesthis showed an estimated growth of 3.4% In January of this year. A slight increase in public services rates and an increase in electrical demand contributed to the progress of the index.
The item of clothing and footwear showed in the first month of the year an estimated decrease of 4.6% AI, with a negative contribution of 0.2% to the advance of 5.4% ia of IC. The division continues to slow down the fall that was experienced in previous months, improving its individual performance, but still failed to pass to positive land.
With respect to the rest of the items, they experienced an estimated advance of 7.4% AI in January (and an incidence of 4.3 pp), positioning themselves at levels 7.5% above prepaandemics levels.
The impact of lower inflation
The data collected by the CAC are given in an economic scenario in which inflation continues to slow down and is close to breaking the 2%barrier. In January 2025, the CPI was from 2.2%, with a interannual of 84.5%.
The January inflation not only the lower since mid -2020in full pandemic, but also the lowest value of a first month for six years. Together with the deceleration of the “Crawling Peg”he Central Bank (BCRA) The monetary policy rate in 3 percentage points since February of this year. While it is not obvious that this rate decrease is transferred to those of the banks (due to poor liquidity), in the medium term it could be made.
Regardless of the rate level, the highest nominal stability contributes to the fact that there is a greater term financing and households can choose to consume more in durable goods.
Mass consumption for 2025
Mass consumption experienced a sustained fall in sales since the beginning of 2024, but in October it managed to change the trend. In January, mass consumption assets – that is, high -rotation and very short useful goods – raised again and showed a disestationalized growth of 4.7% compared to December. In line with this, Mass consumption is projected to rebound this year and recover part of the lost terrain.
After making a flat in April 2024, the credit in real terms managed to grow sustainably during all the remaining months of the year and continued the process at the beginning of 2025. Debt in credit cards and personal loans and pledge managed to exceed the levels of January 2023, allowing the consumption of appliances and cars.
The Sale of durable goodsunlike mass consumption, he already recovered what was lost at the beginning of the year and closed 2024 with better numbers than in 2018. Automobile patenting managed to grow 113% year -on -year In January 2025, while appliances did it at 5.3% during September. The mortgage loan, meanwhile, also increased from the fourth month of the year and managed to motorize the deeds in AMBA that have been at maximum since 2018.
In short, mass consumption continues its recovery processwhile the consumption of durable goods increases strongly. This dynamic represents a change in the structure of household consumption, oriented more to durable goods provided by credit than daily consumer goods. With an available income that will improve in a limited way during this year, the change in the consumption structure will be deepened.
Source: Ambito
