These forecasts indicated an expected inflation of the 54.8%, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous estimate.
Likewise, the market projected an increase in 60.7% in the official wholesale exchange rate, which regulates the BCRA, when in November they projected 55.3%. Expectations pointed to an acceleration in the pace of “crawling peg” in the second part of the year.
Regarding the GDP, the last survey showed a real growth of the 2.5% for 2022, which was an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
For the January REM, it will be key to have the precise dates on which it was held, since on January 28 the Government announced an understanding with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a fact that undoubtedly modified expectations.
The main novelty of the announcements made by the President and the Minister of the Economy was the agreed fiscal deficit reduction path for the coming years, which was the point where there was the most tension. However, it remains to be seen what path the Executive Power intends to take to achieve the objective.
Regarding the exchange rate, the president of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, denied that there will be a devaluation jump. Martín Guzmán has been supporting this position and stressed that there is a consensus with the IMF that the price of the dollar must be compatible with the trade surplus and the accumulation of reserves, which is expected to reach US$5 billion for this year.
Regarding inflation, according to Guzmán there were also coincidences in the need to combat it from various approaches; both with the reduction of the monetary issue, and with policies that seek to generate foreign exchange and price agreements to coordinate expectations.
Source: Ambito
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