Despite down the country’s risk, the government is not in conditions of access to international debt markets. According to the Congress Budget Office (OPC), in its latest February report, the maturities between January and July 2025 total the US $20,140 million. The highest percentage corresponds to letters of the BCRA (US $ 11.033) and public titles (US $ 4354 million). According to these data, for the first semester of 2024 the dollar maturities are US $ 7,910 million.
Can the government face the maturities in dollars?
According to a report by South American Visionconsultant led by the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, the projections on the components of the exchange balance suggest that, Despite the lack of access to the international credit market, The government could comply with its Foreign currency obligations. The report, prepared by Guzmán together with Guillermo Hang and Ramiro Tosi, provides that international organizations will play a key role in debt refinancing, with new credits that will slightly exceed the millions of dollars to be paid.
As for the national treasure, although it still cannot access international and local debt markets in foreign currency, the Government will use the primary fiscal surplus to acquire dollars from the Central Bank and thus be able to face the capital maturities and interests of both local and international bonds.
On the other hand, the Central Bank will allocate part of the currencies bought to cancel the US $ 2,339 millions corresponding to the maturities of the Bopreal Bonus. As for the private sector, both financial and non -financial, payments are expected to be renewed in its entirety.
From South American, they explain that the Evolution of external accounts will facilitate that the government complies with its debt commitments. Despite the lack of access to credit markets, which will generate a deficit in the capital account and interest, this can be covered with the commercial surplus or currency income.
By 2025, a Reduction of the positive balance of the balance of goods and services at US $ 5,256 million, Due to the highest import payments, driven by the expected recovery of GDP. A worsening of US $ 341 million in the interest and utilities account is also anticipated, for the highest payments of public debt, although partially compensated by the lower payments of interest to the IMF, thanks to the cut of surcharges and the access of the provinces to debt markets.
Besides, They highlighted an improvement in the negative balance of the financial account for US $ 4,408 million, derived from the greater volume of refinancing of the private sector and a lower demand for foreign currency by citizens, product of the reduction of the exchange gap. Under this scenario, the dollar needs of the economy could be covered with the aforementioned sources, without generating pressure on the international reserves of the Central Bank.
Finally, they pointed out that this analysis corresponds to a base scenario, with the possibility of improvements, as the possible suspension of the Blend dollar or a new agreement with the IMF, which the government expects to close in the first four -month period of 2025. This agreement could generate additional currency income for the Central Bank, which would have a positive impact on the balance of the financial account and in the variation of gross international reserves.
Source: Ambito
