This was reported on Tuesday by Indec through the publication of its monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE), which functions as a “proxy” of the internal gross product (GDP). Alan VersalliEcogo economist, he said in dialogue with Scope that the fall “is much less than 3% budgeted by the Government initially” and that with the latest data “We returned to the level that the economy had in August 2023 (prior to step)prior to the devaluation of Massa and strong acceleration of inflation. “
Meanwhile, from the LCG consultant they highlighted the sector disparity, with the agriculture as the great beneficiary of 2024, although they clarified that “EMAE without agriculture already grows in interannual terms (3.9%)although at a lower rate than the general level. “
This lower than expected drop occurred after December The activity will bounce, 5.5%, compared to the same month of 2023. In addition, EMAE grew 0.5% compared to November measurement. It was the eighth consecutive monthly improvement.
“This allowed growth from the floor reached in April is 6.8%“He said about it Florence Iraguiof LCG, to this medium.
Strong rebound of activity in December
In interannual terms, nine of the 15 sectors that make up EMAE registered increases in their activity, among which financial intermediation (+18%) and commerce (+7.4%) stood out. In parallel, the Manufacturing industry was the most positive incidencewith an advance of 6.7% versus the same month of the previous year.
It is worth remembering the Low comparison basesince December 2023 was marked by a devaluation jump that led inflation to 25% monthly, thus causing a generalized climate of uncertainty and paralysis of many activities.
At the other extreme, they were Six the items that threw falls, among which the fishing (-25%) and the construction (-7.2% AI) highlighted. Public Construction and Administration (-2.5% IA) were the ones with the highest negative incidence.
What is expected for 2025?
“With two consecutive quarters of expansion, Argentina has left the recession behind and recovered the levels prior to the start of the fall. This rebound is an encouraging signal, and The projections for 2025 are optimistic, with growth estimates greater than 5%“said Lautaro Moschet, an economist at the Freedom and Progress Foundation.
The analyst highlighted the restoration of the macroeconomic order as the necessary condition “so that the economy can grow and develop,” although he clarified that it is not enough. “So that this trend is not simply in a rebound, It is necessary to continue on the deregulation agendain favor of having a more agile, dynamic and efficient economy. This, Next to the elimination of capital controlsthey will be key to enhancing investment, productivity and economic development, “he deepened.
For January, LCG anticipated that the data of loans, imports, consumption of durable goods and automotive production could trace a new improvement monthly. On the contrary, retail sales and agriculture activity would cushion the advance.
The consultant sees that The engine of the activity comes more on the side of the credit than by salarys, that despite their rebound they are still well below the last peak of 2017. “We still expect fragile growthwith slight monthly increases and wide sector disparity. With the positive drag of the last quarter of 2024 and the slight monthly growth that we expect by 2025, we project an average annual expansion of the activity of 4.8% for this year, “he said in a reported report this day.
Source: Ambito
