Consumption: disparities in recovery
For the Argentine Chamber of Commerce (CAC), the consumer indicator (IC) showed an advance of 5.4% interanual In January 2025, which implied a unstacilities of 4.3% compared to December.
Exhibiting a completely different movie, the consultant Scentiaby Osvaldo del Río, ensures that the first month of 2025 He maintained the downward trend in independent supermarkets and self -servicesin that case in a 10.6% interannual. Anyway, he acknowledges that the retraction viewed from last June will be slowed.
“This situation is more noticeable in neighborhood businessesexceeding the 13 points of fall. Also and in line with the expected, the difference between the reported areas, product of seasonality, ”the report adds.
From the study it follows that only two baskets show a slight rebound, “cleaning/home and perishable, but only in supermarkets, not in self -service.
As advance, an important source of supermarket told this media that the February data “It will be negative. ” According to its measurement, the first half of this month gave -2.9% in food, drinks, hygiene and cleaning; and -2% with the rest of the sectors. “This is in chains. Maybe in self -services worse, “he warns.
Asked the CAC itself, the explanation for this difference between the percentages is that the body led by Mario Grinmann includes the measurement of durable goods. Thus, the sale of this item, unlike mass consumption, already recovered what was lost at the beginning of the year and closed 2024 with better numbers than in 2018according to the entity.
For example, the Automobile patenting managed to grow 113% interannual in January 2025, while Appliances did in 5.3% During September. The mortgage credit, meanwhile, also grew from April and managed to motorize the Scriptures in AMBA that are at maximum since 2018.
Credit reactivation, the key to the purchase of washing machines and televisions
For Sebastián Menescaldiassociate director of the consultant Eco Go“It is true that a stronger recovery is seen in what is electro regarding consumption, which is still below.”
Regarding the causes, he considers central Credit reactivationa greater anchor on the expectations that “allow growth” and a Low base comparison base of appliances. According to the economist, “less electro sold in 2024 than in pandemic.”
With regard to mass consumption, he understands that products prices were benefited by the previous management by Price control programswhile the fall in income in 2024 was Massive. “While it is recomposing, the demand is less than before,” explains Menescaldi.
Two issues that derive from the economist’s reflections. First, what Credit in real terms managed to grow steadily since April 2024. According to the CAC, the debt on credit cards and the personal and pledgee credits exceeded the levels of January 2023, allowing the consumption of appliances and cars.
On the other hand, is it so that the purchasing power is recomposing? The consulting company FIDE, Pedro Gaite, private consumption “It is not evolving in the same way that real wages according to INDEC inflation”
The same refers to a discussion that also occurs inside the Government: the out of the basket that measures inflation. “When you correct a more up -to -date basket, Inflation gives you much higher and the real salary a more pronounced fall. The private sector registered, for example, that with the current CPI has already recovered the entire fall of last year, with the update is located six points below. The same with the public, which is 20 backward points”, Considers the specialist.
In this way, the high income strata “are much better stopped”, encouraging the consumption of the “wealthiest” sector, while “Informal are still beaten, unemployment, precariousness and informality increaseL, ”Gaite warns.
This line is also traveled by the Open Observatory economist, Federico Machadowho adds another relevant factor, such as the change of relative prices: the media and low income sectors Mass consumption has been affected by a lower income available, given the highest expense in light, gas and transportation.
In turn, he points out that Home equipment prices evolved below inflationwith a variation of 54.2% throughout 2024 (against a general CPI of 84.5% and a rate of rates of 217.7% and transport of 90.6%). “Durable goods have benefited from both the revenue of their audience and relative prices,” he explains to this medium.
Finally, it also records credit reactivation, accompanied by lower inflation and less demand for weights by the public sector. “This makes it possible to flow in greater volume to the private sector, which generates the return of the fees without interest and other pro-credit commercial policies”, Concludes the economist.
For all this, the CAC indicates that it is observed “A change in the structure of household consumption”, Oriented more to durable goods provided by credit than daily consumer goods. Of course: the entity itself indicates that the Income available during this year will improve, but in a “limited” way.
Source: Ambito
