The last tender carried out by the Treasure left a clear message: The government had to offer higher rates to “roll” debt maturities in pesos. What happened was that the different titles placed were in order 35% and 36% TNA, above the yields recorded in the secondary market, and the inflation projections of the inflation Rem of the Central Bank (BCRA) that places it in 25% for all 2025.
This happens while the Central Bank (BCRA) seeks to control the price of financial dollars with daily interventions, even without reliable results on the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
What left the tender of the treasure: higher rates
From Aurum valuesanalyzed: “The results of the tender on Wednesday showed A validation of rates somewhat higher than those operated in the secondary. This allowed a `rollover` of the maturities of 165% (although the amount to win was relatively low).”
“We considered the position in the bancer interesting, given the stability of the rates in the fixed rate curve and arbitration levels between the two types of assets that involved an advantage for the CER under a normal inflation scenario. However, The market diversified along the basket, without a clear favorite. Next month will come with the `rollear ‘challenge almost $ 13 billion,” they expanded.
For its part, from Cohen They also stressed that, with this result, The treasure is being financed at higher rates. In fact they stated that, to get the “rollover” at those levels, He had to validate interest rates above the market curve: Between 2.5% -2.6% Tem vs. 2.3% -2.4% are in the secondary market.
“These conditions They show liquidity tensions, since the demand for funds by banks that choose to position themselves in Lefi grows –What offers a more attractive theme than almost the entire sovereign debt curve at a fixed rate. This is a challenge for treasure financing, since in the coming months it faces maturities for $ 45 billion “they highlighted.
Market analysis about Luis Caputo’s decision
In a City report he accessed Scopeit is noted that after two consecutive tenders, the government obtained an “Roll Over” on average of 76.8%. This occurred in a context of raptor rise by the treasure that gave An award for entering the tender of about $ 10,000 million with tight prices (bidding liquid on 28/2).
As for these fees, “it is the first time since December that, both The minimum rate at which the treasure places as the maximum rate are above the monetary policy rate (29%). In addition, the weighted average duration was considerably reduced, “they said from Romano Group.
The question then the market is asked is why the treasure validated higher rates. “For our first impression in a treasure search to dry the peso square, in a context where The seasonal demand for dollars can still show some latency (tourist record for Ezeiza/Aeroparque in January). In addition, $ 2.2 billion obtained from the use of pesos in commercial banks that are normally used to finance the working capital of the nation, “they explained from Romano Group.
What can we expect in the short term?
From the City they ensure that validated rates do not generate alarms, but the arrival of March and April is challenges for the maturities facing the government. “Meanwhile, the curve continues to operate inverted, ergo the market still places in prices a deflationary process, although considering the values of the` forward` curve, they do not seem to pay a low rates in the short term “they said from Romano Group.
On the other hand, the Cer Cer operates positively, as well as the “Dollar Linked” curve. The interpretation made by the market is that it is not discounted that inflation will rise, nor will there be a devaluation of the weight in the short term.
Source: Ambito
