The dripping output of the dollar deposits returned to take envy on the last wheels. After a three -day interregno of the faint rebounds, the banking placements of the private sector in foreign currency resumed the decline. So, In four months, the equivalent of almost 20% of the currencies that entered the money laundering left the system equivalent to almost 20%.
It is a relevant variable at a time when the questions to the exchange scheme. On the one hand, because the Dolk deposits constitute the ceiling in which It supports a good part of the basic capacity of banks In foreign currency. And precisely the loans in dollars to companies was one of the few tools that the Central Bank had to buy currencies in the official market during the last time. On the other hand, because when falling They push the lace down and affect the level of reserveswhich is in critical condition.
The last available data of the BCRA show that, On February 26, private deposits in dollars fell at $ 58 million to US $30,342 million. It was the third consecutive daily fall after three days of minor rebounds, which had cut a drip drain that seemed incessant. Thus, so far this year, they accumulate a setback of US $ 1,149 million.
The last peak was reached on October 31, at the edge of the closing of the first stage of money laundering of capitals, in which cash could be regularized. That day, foreign currency deposits of the private sector reached US $ 34,626 million. From then on, they accumulated a bleeding of US $ 4,284 million.
Because of the large incentives arranged by the Government, the bulky result of the laundering was the great engine of the growth of the deposits in dollars between August and October 2024. According to the numbers of the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA, the former AFIP), during the first stage of the asset regularization process, US $ 22,165 million in cash were bleached. This means that The departure of private deposits in American currency accumulated since October 31 is already equivalent to 19.3% of the money laundering in cash.
Departure of deposits in dollars and the BCRA strategy
Maintaining the level of private deposits in dollars is key to economic team strategy. The increase in stock was what generated a reporting money lamp to banks, which allowed to strongly increase credit credit to companies. The Government was responsible for stimulating that circle, with a clear incentive for “Carry Trade” When paying interest rates in pesos higher to the rhythm of devaluation imposed by the “Tabita” by Luis Caputo and Santiago Bausili. This led to many companies to be leveraged with dollars and put themselves to make rate in pesos in search of juicy returns in hard currency.
Why did officials be interested in this happened? Because Dolk loans are automatically settled in the official change market. That increases the foreign currency offer in that square and allows the BCRA to obtain a buyer balance. In the last stretch of last year and in the early 2025, it was one of the few weight factors that allowed him to partially counteract the growing exchange current account deficit. That red increases to the compass of the appreciation that the government promotes to contain inflation to the elections and demand to have important income on the side of the financial account.
The truth is that Deposit drainage and sustained expansion of credit in foreign currency were eating the $ dollars, at least to lend them to exporters. Although this type of financing still has room to continue rising. The key question is what is the remaining margin.
The Consultant 1816 He estimated that, supported by the incentive for “Carry Trade”, At least other US $ 3,000 million could be generated in the short term. At present, the stock of loans in dollars to the private sector exceeded US $ 13,500 million and the 1816 report recalled that, with a similar level of deposits, the maximum stock during the Mauricio Macri government was US $ 1600 million.
Beyond the BCRA flexible the restrictions and enabled banks to lend dollars to non -exporting companies and human people if those funds are obtained through the placement of debt abroad, in the City they consider that This currency bridge has a few months left.
Pressure on reservations
While the exchange scheme adds questions of economists throughout the ideological arch and The government clings to negotiation for a lifeguard of the IMFeveryone looks at the BCRA coffers. Precisely, Drawing dollars drainage is one of the factors that adds pressure on the reservation level gross since it affects the level of lace (the minimum cash that, by regulation, has to be protected in the central).
It is not the only one. It adds to external debt payments and the growing intervention that the monetary authority performs to prevent the exchange gap from widening. In January, by case, he allocated US $ 984 million of reserves to directly intervene over financial dollars; An amount that adds to the nearly US $ 1,500 million that were settled in the CCL following the continuity of the “Blend dollar.”
The Net reserves are still in a very negative field: between US $ 4,000 million YU $ s10,000 milliondepending on the methodology used. The gross reserves are still in low. And analysts estimate that, with this scheme, there will be a missing currency this year of between US $ 9,000 million (consultant 1816) YU $ 13,000 million (CP consultants). A hole that Javier Milei and Luis Caputo want to cover with the new indebtedness of the background, which just requires a modification of the exchange scheme, with greater rhythm of devaluation and disarmament of the stocks.
Source: Ambito
