The rush of the market and the private sector for a Agreement between the Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) refers, at the end of the tunnel, to a single issue: the exit of the stocks. According to a private report, there is at least US $ 6,000 million in profits ready to be rotated. He Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) Analyze How to give them course and companies They are in expectation.
During his 2025 ordinary session opening speech, President Javier Milei advanced the soon sending the technical agreement with the IMF to Congress. “This new agreement will provide us with the tools for to pave the path to a freer exchange scheme and efficient, “the president said on Saturday. In turn, he confirmed that the elimination of exchange restrictions will effectively be in 2025. Previously, he had mentioned that the stocks for January 1, 2026 would cease to exist.
The private sector pays attention to Milei’s statements and his economic team -ordered by the minister Luis Caputo– Because it bets that the leaving of the CEPO promotes investments. But there is a previous step: THE GIRL OF FUNDS To the matrices houses.
According to the consultant Epycaby the economist Martín Kalosthe amount of utilities accumulated in these years of stocks that they hope to be sent abroad is not less: would exceed US $ 6,000 million at the end of this year.
“If there was certainty regarding when or in which order the exchange restrictions would be lifted, would encourage a series of harmful behaviors for the precarious but achieved macroeconomic order”, Says the consultant.
For example, foreign companies appear, which would bundle their accounting earnings this year To take advantage of an upcoming profit window to their matrices houses “that do not enjoy years ago“, Which”would reduce the very necessary and little private investment”, Epyca warns about the subject.
To the BCRA Companies anxiety are not escaped to see close the possibility of fulfilling this desire of the matrices houses. Find a way to manage that stock that expects to be redirected It is a debt that the government recognizes as an obstacle To lift the stocks.
In that sense, this media consulted with official sources If a profit turn strategy is analyzed that raffles exchange tensions that deserve the rapid return of the limits to the movement of dollars. After the question, from the BCRA they answered that “It is studied“The way to manage this stock to satisfy companies at this point, although they mention it in a broad sense of the answer:”All issues related to exchange restrictions are being studied”, Reported.
They also do not consider that there will be News on this point in the short term. Instead, companies are waiting for ads.
Funds: the option that companies consider
How could the exit of these dollars materialize? Most entities remember the strategy adopted in May: the use of bonds for the reconstruction of a free Argentina, or BOPREALES.
In May 2024, the BCRA completed the tender of series 3 of these titles with a tender for negotiable values equivalent to US $ 1,709 million.
The peculiarity of that occasion was that the Bopreals were adopted as a tool for companies to distribute profits and/or dividends to non -resident shareholders, Movement that since September 2019 requires prior conformity of the BCRA.
“We believe that they will implement something kindly type for stock, and start enabling some flow with deferrementssimilar to what they did with imports, ”replies the executive of an important company working in the energy sector.
Also, this possibility also generates divergences between the private sector. Meanwhile a company in the oil sector points out that “It would be logical“A measure of style, a private bank looks at her with greater skepticism:”We see difficult to move the stockfor now we are in the field of imagination, ”he replies to this medium.
For now, in the Ministry of Economy They go to the usual hermeticism in the face of journalistic consultations. However, an ambiguous response does not deny the possibility of a dance strategy: “what is defined will be officially communicated”, Indicated from the Caputo offices.
Anyway, dividend exit is a fine work for any management. Martín Kalos understands that companies “They will get everything they can“When they are allowed. “The logic that prevails there is precisely that of the parent company that invested in Argentina and that thinks business globally: has immobilized resources that would like to take to other sides”, Explains the economist.
It is also true that some companies would prefer to reinvest that money instead of getting profits, but here plays a problem that Kalos awards it to the distrust generated: “Many companies will take advantage of the window and turn their dollars, for fear that Next year that possibility no longer exists “.
“Contrary to what we would like as a country, when that chance is opened, you will have companies that in normal conditions they would have reinvestedbut they take the money for doubts, ”concludes the director of Epyca.
Source: Ambito
