“Likewise, of 1,061 industrial plants, 653 (61.5%) consumed more energy in December 2021 than in the same period of 2019,” added the official report.
The work indicated that “December 2021 had one more business day than its equivalent in 2019” so “with the December data, they estimated that the whole of 2021 closed with a manufacturing expansion of 7% against 2019, and around 16% against 2020”.
For its part, the Orlando Ferreres Center for Economic Studies maintained that “the general level of activity registered an annual growth of 12.4% in December, accumulating an advance of 10.3% for the year 2021” while “the seasonally adjusted measurement showed an expansion of 2.5% compared to November”.
The private consultant pointed out that “The activity during the last month of last year received a strong boost from industry, commerce, construction and the extractive sector.” “December’s extraordinary wheat harvest also helped improve the performance of the agricultural sector, which was the only one to close the year with a negative figure,” Ferreres clarified.
The report added that “in this way, the fourth quarter was the best of the year, with an advance of 4.3% compared to the previous quarter in the measurement without seasonality.” By 2022, he noted, “Prospects are much more modest.”
“Even assuming that the government ends up agreeing with the IMF, the macroeconomic situation will be delicate: with reserves at a very low level, fiscal and monetary policy will necessarily be less expansionary, and inflation is far from slowing down,” the report warned.
“In this context, the advance that we expect from the product is justified in the first instance simply by the statistical drag left by the year that ended, and discounting that effect, we anticipate a year of stagnation for economic activity,” the report detailed.
Next Tuesday, February 8, INDEC will release the Manufacturing Industrial Production Index for December, with the final data for 2021.
Source: Ambito
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