The Government seeks Sign an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and receive a significant sum of money that, according to President Javier Milei, will be used to “The Treasury will use it to cancel part of your debt with the Central Bank”. For its part, the spokeswoman of the financial agency, Julie Kozack, said: ” We are advancing well towards a (new) program. We are working it constructively with the Argentine authorities. ”
Amid the negotiations, different economists commented on how the new agreement will impact on the Argentine economy. Dollar, inflation and stocks, The main points of economic management that could change with the disbursement of money.
“The Government already said that the stocks will be taken before the end of the year. No one knows exactly where the dollar will go, but $ 1,200, A 15%devaluation would not be a bad number“, held. In this sense, Kiguel said that this rises “would not generate much inflation nor would it be a worrying thing for people “and that” should not cause significant exchange noise. “
For his part, the director and chief economist of the Faith 10% and 15%, With a Official dollar estimated in US $ 1,200.
In detail, the director of the Fiel Consultant explained that the Exchange market still is completely free due to the constant Central Bank Intervention and the lack of enough reserves. In this context, he stressed that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is key to improving the position of the monetary authority, although warned that it does not solve the structural problems of the Argentine economy.
“The market expects that at some point there is an exchange correction. However, the most important changes will arrive after the October elections”he said.
In addition, Bour estimated that the exit of the exchange rate and the market unification could lead to a Moderate rise of the official dollar. “We are not talking about alarming figures, but certainly a correction from 10% to 15% lacks”he said. According to their projections, The official dollar could be located around US $1200 At the end of 2025, while the market speculates with a value close to US $ 1,300.
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On the other hand, the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA) unveiled that analysts predict a exchange rate of $ 1.201 in December 2025.
From the outside, a Bank of America (Bofa) report projects that the currency could reach $ 1,400. This possibility is tied to the government specify an agreement with the IMF and receive new disbursements from the agency.
Finally, 50 consultants and private banks participating in Latinfocus Consensus Forecast agreed that the wholesale dollar will be $ 1,348, while the parallel exchange rate would be around $ 1,332.
What economists think about the future of inflation
In the next few days, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) corresponding to February. However, analysts already begin to project the data and evaluate whether the downward trend can be maintained.
In this sense, the director of the Economic Studies of Orlando Ferreres & Asociados, Fausto Spotorno, said: “February is giving us around 2.3%, slightly above January. The meat was what impacted, along with some increases in fruits and vegetables”said Fausto Spotorno, director of the Center for Economic Studies of Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.
The slight rebound in food prices is presented in a context in which the Government seeks to consolidate the Inflationary deceleration. However, according to Spotorno, reducing inflation at these levels becomes more complex.
“Although inflation we see in descent, at these levels lower it is much more difficult than last year. Lowering an inflation point is to reduce half“explained the economist.
Spotoral analyzed that The services are showing higher inflation compared to goods. As explained, this is due to two main factors:
- Rate rear: “Some services were behind and are now adjusting prices, such as electricity, gas and water. These items will continue to show increases above average”.
- Salary recovery: “An improvement in real wages is being seen. And the services, in general, depend more on salaries than the production of goods. Between the increase in income and the adjustment of the rates, the prices of the services are rising above the general inflation, which could delay the deceleration of the CPI”.
Banks and consultants rule out devaluation in the coming months
After an intense debate between economists about the possibility of a devaluation and government position against, The projections of 15 banks and consultants They reduced the probability that this occurs in the coming months, due to the lower inflationary pressure. From focuseeconomics they argued that this reduction responds to several factors, such as comparison with a High base, fiscal austerity, commercial liberalization and decreased property taxes.
At present, the highest estimate is that of S&P Global Ratings, which It places the official dollar at $ 1,800 for December. Meanwhile, other consultants and financial entities also adjusted their projections: Fitch Ratings foresees $ 1,563, balancing and Barclays Capital estimate $ 1,550, While Empiria Consultores places it in $ 1,535.
What dollar the consultants estimate for December
- BBVA Research: $ 1,380
- OJF Associates: $ 1,391
- UBS: $ 1,400
- Econviews: $ 1,410
- Citigroup: $ 1,427
- Analytica Consultant: $ 1,439
- Mapfre Consulting: $ 1,440
- Invecq Consulting: $ 1,450
- LCG: $ 1,452
- Capital Economics: $ 1,500
- Empiria Consultores: $ 1,535
- Barclays Capital: $ 1,550
- Balance: $ 1,550
- Fitch Ratings: $ 1,563.
- S&P Global Ratings: $ 1,800.
Source: Ambito
