The main analysts of the City will present their forecasts For the coming months about the main economic variables, such as dollarthe inflation and the GDPamong others. It will be through Survey of market expectations (REM), carried out monthly by the Central Bank, which collects the forecasts of economic consultants and both public and private financial entities. The report will be announced this afternoon.
In the last REM, the Market adjusted down its forecasts on January inflation And he presented more optimistic expectations, pointing to an inflationary deceleration, exchange stability and moderate growth. However, they warned that challenges persist in key areas such as fiscal consolidation and maintenance of the commercial surplus, Topics that dominated recent debates.
In addition, the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adds new questions for the future of the economic landscape, since there are still no specific details that allow anticipating how the variables will affect in the coming months.
Inflation
In the last REM, the consultants projected that a inflation 2.1%. However, after its publication, the bulk of the analysts went on to estimate that the CPI will be above 2%, exhibiting an acceleration with respect to the previous measurement by greater pressure of food prices.
The balance report indicated that Monthly inflation reached 2.5%which implies a rise of 0.3 percentage points compared to January, registering the main increases in housing, water, electricity and other fuels (4.3%), restaurants and hotels (4.2%) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.2%). The interannual variation was estimated at 67%.
Ecogo Consultores, meanwhile, estimated that last month inflation reached 2.7%, with an average variation in food and drinks that climbed 3.8%1.7 percentage points above what is recorded the previous month.
In this regard, they said that “the rises in the price of the meat marked the tonic of the month, leading to register a marked acceleration of prices.” The meat values shot 7.8% in their measurement.
Dollar
As for the projections for the official dollar, in the last REM reductions for the first semester were observed This year, in tune with the decision of the BCRA to reduce the rhythm of adjustment to 1% monthly. If the forecast is fulfilled, in the first half of 2025 the currency would climb 7.9%. For the whole year the expected increase is 17.6%lower than the projected inflation for the same period.
Nevertheless, For the next 12 months the increase in the planned wholesale exchange rate exhibited an upward adjustment (to 19%)which implicitly indicates that the market enclosures an exchange correction (although not very significant) in early 2026. It is worth remembering, in this regard, that this week President Javier Milei said that on January 1 of next year there will be no more stocks. Within this framework, the projections on the dollar could be maintained almost without variations since there is no expected exchange leap for the first semester, as reflected in the future dollar contracts. The question passes after the elections.
GDP
According to the last report, banks and consultants They foresee a growth of the internal gross product (GDP) of 4.6%0.1 pp above the previous estimate. A fact to highlight is that for the last quarter of 2024 an advance of the economic activity of 1.6% was estimated, when before the number was 0.9% versus the quarter predecessor.
A recent Ferreres & Asociados report, highlighted that The level of economic activity improved in the first two months of the year, However, he clarified that the interannual comparison takes into account that in 2024, the first three months of the year were a strong fall.
Source: Ambito
