The Government announced that it will sign a DNU to authorize a new debt operation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although the agency clarified that negotiations are still ongoing, both the president Javier Mileisuch as the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputothey assured that the completion of the process is imminent. The expectation of a exchange jump In the short term between economists and consultants, who now expect the flexibility of the stocks. The scenarios that open to The dollar, inflation, activity and markets Before a key event.
2025 began with a strong component of uncertainty for Argentina in the markets. To the volatility that is registered globally with a commercial war that delivers new chapters every day, local components are added. The fragility on external accounts, the debate on the level of the exchange rate and the difficulty in accumulating reserves.
So the S&P Merval registered a fall close to 15% in dollars in the first two months of the year, the country risk jumped from 610 to 692 basic points and even touched the 780 points and The interventions of the Central Bank to stop the gap around the US $1 billion in January.
To boost positive expectations about Argentine assets, the market expects news with the Monetary Fund. This week The Government stepped on the accelerator and given the uncertainty of a possible political setback announced that a bill will not be sent To authorize the new indebtedness and that the mechanism used will be the decree of necessity and urgency.
That decision ignores Law 27,612, known as the “Guzmán Law.” In article 2, it provides that “any public credit financing or operation program carried out with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as any expansion of the amounts of these programs or operations, will require a Law of the Honorable Congress of the Nation that expressly approves it”.
Much was speculated on the position of the IMI on this matter And the last statement of spokeswoman Julie Kozack did not clarify too much. In fact, different interpretations circulated on the same statement, that the fund requires the support of the Congress or that the agency does not request it.
Before consulting Scopean authorized source of Background He clarified that, although it is not a requirement that a program has parliamentary discussion, For the directory it is essential that the internal regulations of each country be complied with. In other words, the IMF asks to comply with the current Argentine regulations at the time of discussing the Board of Directors.
IMF disbursements and the dollar
Despite the need and urgency that the government stands out, The new program is not closed. “In my experience, and it is normal for this to happen, when an agreement is reached, the fund is going to take a statement to confirm that an understanding between the authorities and the technical staff of the Fund was reached,” the former director of the Claudio Loser agency clarified to this medium.
On this point, he considered that for the delays It is evident that there were differences between Argentina’s application and fund requirementsespecially in the exchange part of the program. The economist who lives in Washington believes that the organism will not directly ask for a devaluation, but the commitment to advance with the flexibility of controls.
“They are going to give them an important amount initially, such as $ 5,000 million and then the rest in comfortable quarterly fees will be given According to how the program is fulfilling, “he said to this medium and added:” The background burned with Macri giving him too much input money, there was an internal analysis of that program and the review marked that it cannot be provided so much and as soon as. “
The initial disbursement figures vary according to the source consulted. The Swiss Bank UBS said they could be US $1,000 million and another former fund official consulted by this U $ 8,000 million. In any case, there is coincidence that this first reinforcement to the reserves would allow the government to reach the elections without shocks in the official exchange rate.
Inflation, activity and markets
For the economist of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, Aldo Abram, the agreement with the IMF will be crucial for Argentina to aspire to inflation of an annual digit. “It will allow the government to cancel treasure debts with the Central Bank, strengthen reservations and will contribute to monetary stability,” he said.
The consultant Abeceb directed by the former Dante Sica Production Minister, He pointed out that an agreement with the IMF is essential for Argentina to return to international credit markets. Given possible corrections in exchange policy, Abeceb stressed that thanks to the macroeconomic order, the transfer at prices of an eventual could be less.
The markets are expectant. They expect details, not only of the volume of disbursements, By 1816 “the schedule, sequentiality and conditions will also be decisive, both for the use of funds, and in relation to monetary and exchange policy” For the Top Consultant of the Market, these points “will determine the response to an eventual understanding with our main institutional creditor.”
Source: Ambito
