Although they stressed that the “normalization of consumption baskets” will yield good results for categories linked to leisure, this improvement will have as a counterweight a lower consumption of goods and “neutral” perspectives for mass consumption.
“Consumer confidence remains in a state of lethargy. The perception that it is a good time to buy durable, as a refuge of value due to the impact of the gap and the existence of subsidized financing programs; It is compensated with a negative look of the macroeconomic environment and the personal situation, where the future also deteriorates it faster than the present, “they said since” the relatively good results for the consumption that were recorded in the last part of 2021, they will not be repeated in 2022, with the exception of some point markets such as the automaker and the appliances “.
The study highlights that income will not be able to support consumption, due, among other factors, to “the increase in household indebtedness, which implies diminishing returns from programs like Now.”
In this regard, since FIDE indicated: “The consumption indicators now24, measured by CEP XXI for the month of January, register a nominal growth of 63%, which is equivalent to a real increase of 12.5% with this Increase, the eleventh consecutive growth month of the consumption of this indicator is recorded. Likewise, when observing the complete series, January 2022 shows a certain deceleration regarding the previous months, especially the month of December, the highest growth of the entire period. “
Analysis
After closing 2021 with a growth of 14.8% per year, retail sales began the year with a strong increase even compared to summer prior to the pandemic. In any case, facing what may happen throughout 2022, there are some aspects that must be taken into account.
“We have some issues that need to be improved in order for the recovery to consolidate. Some issues of macroeconomics must be resolved. Inflation is a relevant factor, which threatens the maintenance of consumption, because it deteriorates the purchasing power of wages,” Salvador Femenia, spokesperson for CAME, told Ámbito.
“There are some factors linked to the issue of production, with imported products, which is not normalized. With which, there is no supply of some products in the domestic market, which is also impacting on costs. And I think the exchange gap is also hitting, “said Female, who concluded:” Therefore, I think there are some macroeconomic issues that stick directly on the micro, which has to be resolved so that this recovery process is growing. Both what is the production and the sales in the retail trade”.
Source: Ambito
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