Transatlantic conflict: Counter -tariffs follow on tariffs: does the trade war start now?

Regardless of warnings from the EU, US President Donald Trump had new import duties introduced to steel and aluminum products. The answer to Brussels follows promptly. Is this the beginning of the dreaded trade war between Europe and the United States? Questions and answers at a glance:

What exactly happened on Wednesday morning?

At 5.01 a.m. German time, Trump launched new tariffs of 25 percent on the import of steel and aluminum products in the USA. The EU announced countermeasures around an hour later. From April 1st, EU extracölle will again be due to the import of American products such as Bourbon Whiskey, video game consoles, boats and peanut butter. The customs set is said to be 50 percent – for example for motorcycles that the well -known manufacturer Harley -Davidson builds in the USA.

The plans of the European Commission responsible for EU trading policy also provide to prove numerous other imports with countermeasures from mid-April in coordination with the Member States. They are supposed to meet companies that sell American agricultural products such as poultry, beef, certain seafood, nuts, eggs, dairy products, sugar and vegetables. In addition, there should also be EU extracelle on other industrial products such as textiles, leather goods, household appliances, tools, plastics and wood products. The duty rate could be 25 percent.

What does the customs dispute mean for economy and jobs?

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sees considerable dangers. Specifically, it predicts rising prices, problems in supply chains and the risk of job losses. “Customs are taxes. They are bad for companies and even worse for consumers,” she says.

Economists share this view. The resulting uncertainty has a negative impact on the investments of companies and the economy in general, analyzes Samina Sultan from the Institute of German Economy (IW). “This should also endanger jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Which products could be more expensive?

Basically everyone who is affected by the tariffs. “How much more expensive depends on how high the demand is or whether the products can easily replace, with equivalent products from Europe,” explains economist Sultan. For jeans, the fashion association Germany considers the effects, for example, to be manageable. Products that come directly from the USA played a major role on the market in Germany, says a spokeswoman. The most important manufacturer countries are China, Bangladesh and Turkey. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the import value for jeans from the USA was only a good three million euros in 2024.

Is that the beginning of a great European-American trade war now?

That depends above all on Donald Trump. Thomas Gitzel, chief economist of VP Bank in Liechtenstein, sees the risk of an escalation spiral. In contrast to the trade conflict between the EU and the USA in Trump’s first term, US criminal measures could only be the start of a whole series of tariffs. “A global trade war slowly absorbs speed,” he says. Trump has already announced that they want to impose new tariffs on cars and other goods from the EU.

As a result of increased US tariffs against China, goods from the Far East could also flock more to Europe, says Rolf Langhammer, Economist at the Kiel Institute for World Economy (IFW). “Fearing is a negative game game in which everyone loses.”

What’s next?

Commission President of the Leyen emphasizes that the EU is ready to negotiate. “We are firmly convinced that in a world full of geo -economic and political uncertainties, it is not in our common interest to burden our economies with such tariffs,” she says.

What could the EU offer Trump?

According to the EU Commission, the European Union and Trump could conclude a new deal to expand American exports of LPG (LNG). “We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, so why not use American LNG instead, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices,” said the top German politician after a phone call to Trump after his choice. In addition, it would be possible to import more military technology and agricultural goods from the USA and reduce the import duties for US cars. At ten percent, these were significantly higher than 2.5 percent.

What are the EU’s pressure tools?

The EU’s extra tariffs could be sensitive to some US companies. Trump had already introduced special tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum products from 2017 to 2021 and justified this “with interests of national security”. At that time, the EU reacted with retaliation tariffs to US products such as bourbon whiskey and motorcycles-and manufacturers like Harley-Davidson complained of negative effects.

Try to meet the United States where it hurt, an EU official said in Brussels on Wednesday. This means that you have a list of products that have a high iconic and symbolic value. In order to build up as great political pressure, products are also targeted that come from the home of influential party friends of Trump. For example, there should be new EU tariffs on soybeans, which are produced, among others, in Louisiana, the home of representative spokesman Mike Johnson.

Why does Trump introduce the tariffs at all?

Trump wants to strengthen the United States as a production location and reduce trade deficits. For example, it is a thorn in the side that European companies sell significantly more goods in the United States than American companies in the EU. This applies above all to Germany: Local exporters sold 2024 worth 161.4 billion euros to the United States, a good ten percent of all German exports. Conversely, 2024 were imported from the USA worth 91.4 billion. The result was a German record surplus of around 70 billion euros with the United States.

The EU Commission argues that the United States sells more services to the EU than the other way round. If you take into account goods and services, there was only a small surplus of 48 billion euros around 2023. That corresponds to three percent of the total trade between the USA and the EU.